Aaron Rodgers traded to the NY Jets

@H5 posted:

He, Rodgers, needs to lead the Packers to a Championship this season.

Disagree somewhat. They need to compete for a title, but the biggest thing is to not lose in the playoffs again when you are the better team.

If the Packers go 12-5 and get beat in the playoffs by some 15-2 type juggernaut that's playing well, that's disappointing but understandable.

During the last decade, the Packers have been eliminated at least four times when they were clearly the better team (Giants 2011, Seattle 2014, Tampa Bay 2020, and SF 2021). You could argue the two SF Kaerpenick games are also in this category.

Rodgers has to play well enough to provide enough of a cushion to overcome poor play from other parts of the team or unlucky bounces against clearly inferior teams.

@packerboi posted:

Again, many who will argue this point like to forget it's entirely possible that Rodgers elevated his play precisely because of the pick of Jordan Love.

It completely fits Rodgers M.O. Going back to his college days anyone who he felt bruised his fragile ego he was hell bent on proving wrong.

So with no threat of a 1st round pick in his rear view mirror and Rodgers continuing to believe he's the smartest guy in the room, it's at least plausible that Rodgers does not play at an MVP level not to mention ignoring MLF's direction on play calling if Love isn't here.

And as others have said, this may not really be about Jordan Love "sucking". It's likely much more about not wanting to walk away from a back-to-back MVP and a guy who clearly gives you the best chance to win the SB in the next 2 years.       

Again, what many who will do whatever mental gymnastics are necessary to defend the front office's decision to spend 1st and 4th round picks on a QB who the front office has no intention of playing for at least the first 4 years of his career like to forget is that in 2018 Old Rodge was playing for a head coach whose offensive scheme peaked in 2011 and by 2018 had become as stale as a  butterburger left out overnight after yet another home playoff defeat.

But what about 2019 you say when MLF and his innovative new offense arrived? Well the front office had Old Rodge tossing spirals that year to Davante and, among others, ... the skeleton Jimmy Graham, Danny Vitale, Darrius Shepherd, Trevor Davis, Jace Sternberger, Jake Kumerow, and the immortal Geronimo Allison.

The receiving corps was so bad that Lazard was seen God send when he arrived during the season to at least give some semblance of competence to the WR corps. And, oh yeah, MVS ran fast down the field but was terrible in year 2. Adams, Lazard, a raw MVS and Jimmy Graham. Brutal.

Nothing above absolves Old Rodge for his failings, especially and including the recent playoff loss to the 49ers, but to overlook the contributions of the front office/McCarthy coaching to the poor passing attack in 2018 and 2019 is akin to justifying the Jordan Love pick.

It only works if you are unwilling to hold the front office accountable for the product on the field.

@packerboi posted:

"Categorically false" when they reported these contract numbers.

Not so much, KAaron..

Along with the incredible throws and daring escapes, one of Aaron Rodgers’ greatest skills is getting casuals to fall for his “the media is lying about me” bit while they continue to be right over and over about stuff he says they’re getting wrong.

He’s gaslighting you.

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) March 15, 2022

TBF, the report did say $200M to which he responded it was false.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/gr.../aaron-rodgers-3745/

The dead cap charges for Rodgers the next 3 years make it obvious that as long as he is healthy he is going to be the starting QB for the Packers until he's 41 and maybe even 42 years old.

It would cost them 175, 147, 115, and 77 million to move on from him over the next 4 years.

Wisconsin sports teams have now committed what's approaching a billion dollars to three players. Giannis is guaranteed to make at least 335 million in his career, Rodgers is at least 410 million, and Yelich is over 200 million.

@packerboi posted:

Aaron Rodgers' cap numbers the next three years for the #Packers:

2022: $28.5 million (down from $46.7 million)
2023: $31.6 million (up from $7.7 million on a previously voidable year)
2024: $40.7 million

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 15, 2022

The tradeoff for cap savings now: If Aaron Rodgers retires or the #Packers move on after the 2023 season, they would have a $68.205 million dead cap hit on the books in 2024. https://t.co/su8MOA6evy

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 15, 2022

@MichiganPacker posted:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/gr.../aaron-rodgers-3745/

The dead cap charges for Rodgers the next 3 years make it obvious that as long as he is healthy he is going to be the starting QB for the Packers until he's 41 and maybe even 42 years old.

It would cost them 175, 147, 115, and 77 million to move on from him over the next 4 years.

There does seem to be a few "outs" depending on when they move on from him, pre or post-6/1 any given year (which basically is, take the cap hit now, or spread it out to the next year).

Either way, even if we release him after 6/1 2025 (!), he still counts for $38m in dead cap for 2025 and 2026 each.  And that's the best case, least dead cap scenario.

I get that the cap keeps going up, but this guy is gonna be on the books long after he is gone.

@vitaflo posted:

The tradeoff for cap savings now: If Aaron Rodgers retires or the #Packers move on after the 2023 season, they would have a $68.205 million dead cap hit on the books in 2024. https://t.co/su8MOA6evy

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 15, 2022

And that is my biggest concern. Did 12 truly commit for 3 years or are we doing this wishy -washy song and dance every year? If he walks GB is in a tough spot.

If they trade him, does the dead cap money in 25 and 26 go with him?

Biggest question is how many void years are there.  I don't think that's been reported.

@BrainDed posted:

If they trade him, does the dead cap money in 25 and 26 go with him?

No.  Trading is basically the same as releasing him.  According to the contract breakdown anyway.  Probably the result of all the guaranteed money.

Rodgers is here 3 more years...no way Ballz and Gutey signed off on this deal that penalizes them so harshly if he leaves before year 3 is up. The club has committed to him because he has committed to them.

Sorry Jordan, you are either going to another team or will be a backup until you are 25 and leave via FA.

@Chongo posted:

Sorry Jordan, you are either going to another team or will be a backup until you are 25 and leave via FA.

The best thing for Love and really for the Packers might just be to hang on to him through TC and pre-season, and if he pulls a Matt Hassleback and looks like Mr. August this summer, the Packers could pull off a decent trade. Especially if a team suffers an injury at QB and they need a replacement.

I wouldn't rule out him being traded during the draft either if a QB needy team misses out on what is a very weak QB draft and they don't get the guy they want.

The other thing this contract probably does is lock in MLF and Gutey in their positions for at least the next 4 years.

If Rodgers stays healthy and plays at 75% of what he has the last two seasons, that's good enough to compete for the playoffs at a bare minimum. That keeps them safe.

If Rodgers gets hurt and misses a lot of time, that particular season is shot and no one can blame the FO or MLF for "bad injury luck." This is especially true if Love gets traded.

The only way MLF and Gutey are on the hot seat now is if Rodgers plays well and they don't make the playoffs (very unlikely).

If they'd have moved on from Rodgers and tanked the next 2-3 years under Love, then MLF and Gutey are likely listing their houses for sale in 2025 or so.

My father had a graduate degree in economics. The main take-home from that is that people usually make decisions according to what the economic incentives are. That's what this extension is for Rodgers, Gutey, and MLF.

It may not be in the best long-term interest of the Packers, especially when we are sitting through cellar-dweller teams from 2025-2027, but we can debate that in about 5 years.

Local sports radio discussing the ultimate genius plan: Rodgers plays 3 of the 4 years of this contract. Win 2 SB's. They rebuild that last year, tank, and then the Packers draft Arch Manning coming off a crap season.

Yes, that Manning.

See young Arch has his index finger on the point of the ball ala Terry Bradshaw.

@packerboi posted:

"Categorically false" when they reported these contract numbers.

Not so much, KAaron..

Along with the incredible throws and daring escapes, one of Aaron Rodgers’ greatest skills is getting casuals to fall for his “the media is lying about me” bit while they continue to be right over and over about stuff he says they’re getting wrong.

He’s gaslighting you.

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) March 15, 2022

Rodgers is the most dishonest person in sports, mostly because while he is lying to our faces he is accusing others of doing the lying. Really not a fan.

@Chongo posted:

There is a big difference in getting paid $50M per year and getting $50M per year of "new money". If these numbers thrown around are not new money speak then Rodgers won't get the title of highest paid QB.

We shall see how it turns out.

— Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap 💰 (@KenIngalls) March 15, 2022

@Chongo posted:

Rodgers is here 3 more years...no way Ballz and Gutey signed off on this deal that penalizes them so harshly if he leaves before year 3 is up. The club has committed to him because he has committed to them.

Sorry Jordan, you are either going to another team or will be a backup until you are 25 and leave via FA.

Unless he retires. And yes, the level of guaranteed money makes this a possible issue.

Let's say they trade Love for whatever because they just don't believe he'll pan out. You still have to get a backup QB for this year and next year at a minimum, and then a young QB to take over so he has at least a year with Rodgers (supposedly) still around... unless you think Benkert is your backup guy for two years. Even after that, you have to hope you hit on the right QB in the draft even though you'll probably be drafting in the higher numbers since Rodgers is still playing.

I like how the present looks, but the future may be really dim... and I'm not getting any younger!

I’m disappointed, bordering on pissed off. Why? This thread has a click bait title with the rong contract terms that Aaron himself tweeted about over a week ago.

X4 = Fake news.  

@packerboi posted:

Again, many who will argue this point like to forget it's entirely possible that Rodgers elevated his play precisely because of the pick of Jordan Love.

It completely fits Rodgers M.O. Going back to his college days anyone who he felt bruised his fragile ego he was hell bent on proving wrong.

So with no threat of a 1st round pick in his rear view mirror and Rodgers continuing to believe he's the smartest guy in the room, it's at least plausible that Rodgers does not play at an MVP level not to mention ignoring MLF's direction on play calling if Love isn't here.

And as others have said, this may not really be about Jordan Love "sucking". It's likely much more about not wanting to walk away from a back-to-back MVP and a guy who clearly gives you the best chance to win the SB in the next 2 years.       

Too bad someone didn’t bruise his fragile ego about January 15th the last couple of years.

The chip as a motivating factor only seems to be in effect when AR is playing well (0-4 vs. Niners in the postseason). I'm inclined to believe AR's improved play is more the result of the new HC, but that's something you can't prove one way or the other.

Legitimate argument for both going all-in with AR and taking the picks and players and moving on and I don't see job security as a significant factor in the decision. My view remains it'll take winning it all to validate the move that was made.

@michiganjoe posted:

it'll take winning it all to validate the move that was made.

Whether extending Rodgers or the pick of Love/move on from Rodgers, the above statement is true.

Timeline/expectation may be slightly different, but the goal is the same.

I would venture a guess, if the Packers don't win a championship in the next three years, the entire house is getting cleaned out.

Typically, the longer a NFL player plays on their contract the cheaper the dead cap would be if they retire.

This is not the case with Aaron Rodgers' new deal - every year he plays makes his walking away more expensive.

Retired Dead Cap:
2023: $40.3M
2024: $68.2M
2025: $76.8M

— Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap 💰 (@KenIngalls) March 16, 2022

Brandt sticking to his opinion that it's a one-year window.

@Goalline posted:

Rodgers is the most dishonest person in sports, mostly because while he is lying to our faces he is accusing others of doing the lying. Really not a fan.

The two biggest sports stars in the state are Rodgers and Giannis. The contrast between the two in terms of their attitudes toward family, loyalty, and honesty is about as divergent as you can get.

"Aaron Rodgers is who he is & that's what I like most about him" ~@TJLang70#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/cwrdjv22w1

— 🅿️at McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 16, 2022

“Professional hate” lol. Some hate him due to his vax status, but let’s not go there.

Comical scenario with Rodgers retiring after next year and the Packers carrying him on the roster anyway so he does count 100 million against the cap. Rodgers fucking owns this franchise. He can pretty much do what he wants.

The Ghee Boy Packers!

Isn’t it illegal to own two NFL franchises?  Especially in the same division.

Story by Sam Farmer in LATimes this week about the Russell Wilson trade to the Broncos said Denver GM had not talked to Packers about Rodgers since last year, and his pursuit of Wilson has been going on for months, with many discussions.

He's who they wanted. Not AR.

https://www.latimes.com/sports...ussell-wilson-secret

@MichiganPacker posted:

The two biggest sports stars in the state are Rodgers and Giannis. The contrast between the two in terms of their attitudes toward family, loyalty, and honesty is about as divergent as you can get.

Divergent- starring Shailene Woodley.

@SteveLuke posted:

Again, what many who will do whatever mental gymnastics are necessary to defend the front office's decision to spend 1st and 4th round picks on a QB who the front office has no intention of playing for at least the first 4 years of his career like to forget is that in 2018 Old Rodge was playing for a head coach whose offensive scheme peaked in 2011 and by 2018 had become as stale as a  butterburger left out overnight after yet another home playoff defeat.

But what about 2019 you say when MLF and his innovative new offense arrived? Well the front office had Old Rodge tossing spirals that year to Davante and, among others, ... the skeleton Jimmy Graham, Danny Vitale, Darrius Shepherd, Trevor Davis, Jace Sternberger, Jake Kumerow, and the immortal Geronimo Allison.

The receiving corps was so bad that Lazard was seen God send when he arrived during the season to at least give some semblance of competence to the WR corps. And, oh yeah, MVS ran fast down the field but was terrible in year 2. Adams, Lazard, a raw MVS and Jimmy Graham. Brutal.

Nothing above absolves Old Rodge for his failings, especially and including the recent playoff loss to the 49ers, but to overlook the contributions of the front office/McCarthy coaching to the poor passing attack in 2018 and 2019 is akin to justifying the Jordan Love pick.

It only works if you are unwilling to hold the front office accountable for the product on the field.

Is he the second coming of kworst?  Anybody know if he has a boat?

@Fandame posted:

Let's say they trade Love for whatever because they just don't believe he'll pan out. You still have to get a backup QB for this year and next year at a minimum, and then a young QB to take over so he has at least a year with Rodgers (supposedly) still around... unless you think Benkert is your backup guy for two years. Even after that, you have to hope you hit on the right QB in the draft even though you'll probably be drafting in the higher numbers since Rodgers is still playing.

I like how the present looks, but the future may be really dim... and I'm not getting any younger!

I honestly don't think the future is as grim as many believe and I am also not getting any younger trust me.  I think as long as MLF and Gute are around the team will have a steady positive influence for the future.  I get it that some dislike Gute but I am all in on him because he has shown that he will make moves that shows he has balls and is trying to win now as well as keeping an eye on the future.  I think he truly gets it that you build a winner with defense and a really good OL.

Trading Adams kind of stings but getting some nice draft capital for a guy who no longer wanted to be in GB isn't that bad.

I get the same positive feeling from MLF.  Yes he was a year to late on the canning of the ST coach but he showed that he was willing to do it.   Yes he has benefitted from having #12 but he showed that he was willing to work with him to come to a middle ground and make things work.   If he is still in GB once Rodgers is gone we will truly see how good he is and I think he will surprise us.

@YATittle posted:

Story by Sam Farmer in LATimes this week about the Russell Wilson trade to the Broncos said Denver GM had not talked to Packers about Rodgers since last year, and his pursuit of Wilson has been going on for months, with many discussions.

He's who they wanted. Not AR.

https://www.latimes.com/sports...ussell-wilson-secret

I don't believe that for a second.

@PackerHawk posted:

I don't believe that for a second.

Read the story.

Just read it. Sounds very Favre-like.