13-3 First round bye Team +/-

I wonder what year two and a first round WR would do.

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El-Nuke-the-Hurricanes-Bong posted:

I wonder what year two and a first round WR would do.

I would think it SHOULD do wonders.  Add in a quality TE and it could make a big difference.  That said, GB cannot be blind to AR's age or his consistent sub-standard QB play.  

I don't think drafting a QB high this year is an absolute must, but it is definitely something to consider.  

Fandame posted:

Oh, I saw him last year as well, but most folks blamed it on the WRs (again), the staleness of MM’s offense, etc. But what’s different this year is that it’s much more consistent and his throws and reads are consistently worse than last year. Rodgers said earlier this year that he had to be more of a game manager. His head knows that, but his heart (ego?) doesn’t yet believe it. If that happens, he will lead this team a long way...

It would go even further if they actually had more than two legit WRs.  I hope Sternberger shows something next year.

AR

1st half, 6 of 18 for 90 yards and 3 pts.

Finished 27 of 55 for 323 yards and a W.

Made the throws when it mattered.

He was off for the better part of the first 40 minutes of the game, but much of the O was.

Nice thing about this team, they don't have to play perfectly to win.

Hungry5

Nice thing about this team, they don't have to play perfectly to win.

Well from here they do. Theres no more redskins, lions, giants, chargers, raiders etc going forward

Play will have to pick up big time in order to advance. 

Good thing they're home and it's one win away from the NFCC game 

I offered this around midseason.  After carrying this team under a very specific offense for so many years, he now realizes he doesn't have to.  I wonder if for that reason that he has stopped trying to.  

There also has to be something to the idea that he is in a new system with new players and no longer one that is so pass centric.  He's not used to that either.  I'm not ready to chalk it all up to his "gradual decline", and he'll have this offseason to readjust. I think we'll know a lot more next year.

As for the rest of this season, the team has 2 weeks to figure out what he can do best and try to eliminate the situations he's struggled in most.  I wouldn't expect any revelations, this team us what it is and we'll see how far that takes them.

Nice theory... I guess.  But it doesn't account for all the overthrows, under throws and passes behind the receiver.  

Up til this week we were complaining about his second halves, he flipped the script on us

Good point.  Rodgers has been so successful he's probably just trying to pad his "come back" stat line.  

That selfish SOB. 

Pakrz posted:

Nice theory... I guess.  But it doesn't account for all the overthrows, under throws and passes behind the receiver.  

Then you didn't read it.

I did... three times actually.  Perhaps I'm just not on board with the excuse machine for an elite football player.  

I agree with Boris.   That drop by Graham was huge.  AR12 begins to think every pass has to be perfect or it's going to be dropped.   Then MVS drops another one. It was not a perfect pass but he should have had it.   The more passes that get dropped the more AR presses.  The more he presses the worse he throws.

Also IIRC the Packer offense over the past few years was the most dangerous   when AR went hurry up. We have seen zero, nada, zilch hurry up this season.  Time to bring it back for the playoffs and catch some team by total surprise. 

Agree. Need the hurry up 

I'm with you on having a quicker pace.  Way too excuseometer on the early drops tho.   But if you are right,  he needs to buck the fuck up.  Get over it and play ball.

DH13 posted:

Pakrz posted:

Nice theory... I guess.  But it doesn't account for all the overthrows, under throws and passes behind the receiver.  

Then you didn't read it.

I didn't see how anything in your theory explains how much more inaccurate he has become.  Rodgers is much more inaccurate because the new scheme is less pass-centric?  Because he no longer has to carry the team?

I don't understand that kind of correlation.

Has he become much more inaccurate?

ammo posted:

I agree with Boris.   That drop by Graham was huge.  AR12 begins to think every pass has to be perfect or it's going to be dropped.   Then MVS drops another one. It was not a perfect pass but he should have had it.   The more passes that get dropped the more AR presses.  The more he presses the worse he throws.

Also IIRC the Packer offense over the past few years was the most dangerous   when AR went hurry up. We have seen zero, nada, zilch hurry up this season.  Time to bring it back for the playoffs and catch some team by total surprise. 

I agree about the hurry up. No reason they can't employ that a bit more during a game. I can't buy in on the other point, though, after what we watched today. Rodgers is the leader of this team. He should be held to a higher standard than his young WRs. Idc if Jimmy Graham drops every single throw, it doesn't provide an excuse for the leader of the team to miss 16 times the way he did. He had a drive where he was 7-7 at one point. What made him accurate on that and ensuing drives? His WRs caught those balls, and would have caught more if AR had been the least bit accurate other times. We know they need an upgrade at WR. But Rodgers has been with this unit for 16 games plus now...he should know what they are and adapt accordingly. The wideouts have rightly gotten blame in numerous other games, but on this occasion they barely even had an opportunity to F things up because balls were over their heads all day. Rodgers also had really good protection today and plenty of good looks. The leader of the team needs to play better if they have any shot at winning in the playoffs. He sets the tone for the whole scheme.

Hungry5 posted:

Has he become much more inaccurate?

Yes. 

2008 - 2014 His avg finish in Comp % was 6th 

2015 - 2019 His avg finish in Comp % was 17th

You should know that we at TimesFour do not appreciate stats. We rely on feel to support our confirmation biases. 

Read into it what you will (from Silverstein): 

"The NFL’s official play-by-play  makes subjective decisions on whether a pass is “short” or “deep.” But for argument’s sake, let’s say they’re close in their assessment. A total of 25 of Rodgers’ 55 throws were listed as “deep,” which based on the passes he completed probably are defined as 17 or more yards down the field.

Of those 25, Rodgers completed six (24%) for 134 yards and two touchdowns with an interception."

.........

"Asked whether it was Rodgers who was engineering the slant toward all the deep throws, LaFleur looked uncomfortable answering, but admitted that Rodgers has the freedom to fire the ball down the field if that’s the best option."

https://www.jsonline.com/story...ost-them/2748793001/

I need my edible to hurry up. 

The WRs drop a bunch of "catchable" passes right.

Remember when Favre's WRs would run the wrong routes.

Not enough credit being dished out to the D in this thread.   3 points allowed in the 2nd half with huge stops in huge moments.  

Last year we lose this game because the D doesn’t give the O the chance to get their shit together. 

****** needs to make decisions faster and not be afraid to scramble a bit more often. Forget the home run balls and move on from the all of the dropped passes, which I'm sure piss him off. This team is healthy with a good O-line, running game, defense and better STs. 

The receivers need to stop dropping passes.

Fandame posted:

Timpranillo posted:

+

• First round bye, possible HFA throughout
• Aaron Jones is legit one of the best 2-3 RBs in the NFL. They need to lean on him from here on out like the Bears leaned on Payton in the 70's
• Defense played balls out. Got gashed a bit in the first half, but did their jobs throughout. 
• Lazard. He's a baller. He should be the #2 guy from here on out. 
• I donated my 500th gallon of platelets today lifetime and when I showed up for my bi-weekly donation I was shown a plaque with my name on it they installed honoring that milestone.  I'm very passionate about donating platelets (obviously) - they are used to help cancer patients and many other sick people in urgent need. If you are ever asked to help as you are a good candidate, please look into it. The most painful aspect of it is pulling the tape off my gorilla hairy arms at the end...

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The issues are obvious, but nothing to worry about right now when you are 13-3 and clinched a bye. 

Thank you, thank you! People who donate blood, platelets, bone marrow, are all unsung heroes. So, thank you, from this cancer survivor/thrivor. 

Congrats on your success story.  Provides great perspective to remind guys like me who get so pissed during games like today's about what's really important. 

Timpranillo posted:

Hungry5 posted:

Has he become much more inaccurate?

Yes. 

2008 - 2014 His avg finish in Comp % was 6th 

2015 - 2019 His avg finish in Comp % was 17th

One way to look at it.

Another way...

2011, arguably his best season.
AR is 343 of 502 for 68.3% completion.

2019
AR is 353 of 569 for 62.0% completion.

35 more completions on the 2019 season and he has a nearly identical comp % as 2011.
That's a little better than 2 completions per game.

Is that "much more" inaccurate?

artis posted:

Boris posted

 

First play of the game. Graham drops that ball. Seriously, Eff him, He can get cut right now & the Packers don't miss anything. I think that simple drop by Graham could've created an avalanche effect for the entire team & even worse on Rodgers. Should it happen? Hell no, of course not, but when receivers aren't catching the ball I believe Rodgers tenses up thinking he needs to make a play.

Rodgers simply needs to calm the eff down & continue taking the underneath stuff. That will open up the deep stuff & they are so close. Like really really close to curb stomping a team. 

 

Any other week, I'd agree. But one JG drop doesn't account for 16 bad overthrows. And if it does, then the issue is AR's head. How is it that so often this year when they're in a hole, and Rodgers starts matriculating down the field, they find success? Short, high pct throws in rhythm creates tempo. It was only after he started taking what was given that his longer throws yielded results. WRs had steps on guys consistently all day and 12 missed them. He hurt his own team today by insisting on kill shot after kill shot. And they will get buried if the defense isn't able to keep things close in the playoffs. It's been a magical year, no doubt. But that doesn't mean Rodgers shouldIn't face scrutiny for abysmal play.

I totally agree.  Here are ROYAL WULFF’S KEY TAKES (trademark pending):

1.  This new coach needs to make AR12 accountable.  Someone needs to tell him to look in the mirror when he misses his wideouts rather than yelling at them.  However, it should have been done well before this.  Going into your first playoff game is not the optimal time to have this discussion.

2.  When your QB is SO far off on his throws, and Jones has run so well, why wouldn’t you stay on the ground more?  Hmmmm?

3.  In my dreams I see Sternberger coming off of double secret probation (as he was pledged to Delta) and making a playoff game-winning reception.

4.  Speaking of tight ends, I’m sick and tired of AR12 throwing so often to Graham. I’d rather see those throws go to Lazard.  However, I do realize we need more than just Adams and Lazard as targets (I’d say Jones and Williams deserve more tosses, too.  Tonyan too).

5.  When it comes time for the draft, for God’s sake let’s get an ILB and a #2WR!!! 

Positive - The team put almost nothing useful on tape today for our playoff opponent. I really can't see our gameplan on offense being "that" in January. 

Negative - No meaningful GB football for two weeks.

Not sure if positive/negative - I had enough football after the game and couldn't watch the late afternoon games. Guess I'll go with positive since I ended up having game afternoon/night with the family. But I am watching 2nd half of the Seachickens game while my wife sleeps!

Hungry5 posted:

One way to look at it.

Another way...

2011, arguably his best season.
AR is 343 of 502 for 68.3% completion.

2019
AR is 353 of 569 for 62.0% completion.

35 more completions on the 2019 season and he has a nearly identical comp % as 2011.
That's a little better than 2 completions per game.

Is that "much more" inaccurate?

Yes.

In 2011 he finished 2nd in the league in Comp %

In 2019 based on today's numbers he'll come in at 21st in the league in Comp %

A drop from 2nd in the league to 21st in the league is significant. 

Just as averaging 6th in Comp % 2008-2014 vs averaging 18th (updated now with all week 16 stats) in Comp % 2015-2019 is a significant drop. 

Fedya posted:

Worst 13-3 team ever.

I want the Packers to be be the worst team to win the Super Bowls. 

I sometimes wonder with all the talk about his accuracy and how he doesn't throw interceptions - could this be in his head in that he is often hesitant to make a certain risky throws to minimize the interception probability.

I think he’s always been hesitant to make certain risky throws. He’s the anti-Bert....which is a good thing. 

We need to find a rookie like Debo Samuel next year

Comparing AR to league average has nothing to do with whether he is much more inaccurate. 

He's gotten worse as the league as a whole has gotten better in Comp %.  That's the point.  

But it's feeling more and more like we've entered the 2005 era of Favre and "BILL SCHROEDER RAN THE WRONG ROUTE" and even the mildest factual criticism of Rodgers is now blasphemy.  

I mean shit, let's just give him 4 more completions per game! That's like nothing right?  And he'd be right at 74% like Brees!  

Not recognizing that Aaron Rodgers is far less accurate today than he was in 2011 weakens any arguments you have on football. Seriously...