13-3 First round bye Team +/-

BrainDed posted:

"expected points to Green Bay's offensive output"

Get the F out of here with this garbage.    I cannot stand the tech folks coming into sports and trying to put everything into an algorithm.    It does not work that way. 

I don't need AI to tell me that we have a better chance of scoring with Jones on the field than Williams.    Coming up with a equation that tries to put a number on it and spewing to the public as if it has any legitimate value is ridiculous.    It's a guess based off of uncontrollable parameters and nothing more.  Stop pretending as if it's science, it's not. 

I know I play and watch sports for the stat line.  Nothing like sucking the humanity out of something as entrenched in human history as sport.  Make sure everything is quantified and commoditized.

Analytics have a place. For instance the 13-3 Packers have the 2nd lowest DVOA of all time. DVOA is the analytic that has predicted a lot of Super Bowl winners. 

Green Bay and the worst 13-3 (or better) teams in DVOA history (since 1985). The 1999 Colts are the only 13-3 team to come out worse than this year's Packers by DVOA. pic.twitter.com/YEOrCiAmTM

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) December 30, 2019

I agree with @BrainDed -- this team seems to be able to flip a switch & find a way when it matters most. Even the game on MNF vs. Minnesota. 3 turnovers. They still found a way.

Real People...Its  not fantasy football.

Ketchman liked to say, "football at its core is a game of human confrontation."

I would say an outlet for human confrontation just like comedy is for human sorrow and music for every human emotion under the sun.

I'm looking forward to some possible miracles in the playoffs.  That's the stuff.

Henry, that first sentence is lyrical. And you're right about the possibilities. Footballs take funny bounces.

I was playing a kazoo when I wrote it. 

Thought you were reading the phone book.

That chart also has SF losing the 2011 AFCCG. I’m sure Baltimore is relieved to find out it wasn’t actually them that lost that game. DVOA takes into account a full body of work over a season, but it doesn’t take much for a team to find a rhythm and dominate. Do they have the stats for all time DVOA and how that correlates to SB wins?

Henry posted:

I was playing a kazoo when I wrote it. 

Check out The Analogues. Beatles tribute band from the Netherlands. They've used kazoos on different songs to recreate the studio sound Martin got. 

Check out The Analogues.

It's been done:

They have done a damn good job keeping Jones healthy and fresh through 16 games. For the next 3 games it's time to unleash the beast. Let him play 80% of the snaps or more.

Also, did you know? The Packers are undefeated when Kumerow catches a pass this year. I say give Kumerow a screen on the first play then make sure Jones gets 25+ touches. We can't lose! 

I guess the Packers are just going to have to change that table. 

Grave Digger posted:

That chart also has SF losing the 2011 AFCCG.  

Just a typo. They meant NFCCG where they lost to the Giants. 

Grave Digger posted:

Do they have the stats for all time DVOA and how that correlates to SB wins?

Looks like they went back to 1985 ('85 Bears) AFAIK.

Nobody took the 6 seed to the Super Bowl & won it in the NFC, until the Mighty Green Bay Packers did it.

I see no reason why they can't be the first low end DVOA to win it all. Lotta work to do though.

Let's see what happens in this week's games. 

I bet the Vikings & Tennessee on the MoneyLine this weekend. 😁 

Henry posted:

I was playing a kazoo when I wrote it. 

Can't believe you fell for that!

bdplant posted:

Henry posted:

Timpranillo posted:

Hungry5 posted:

Has he become much more inaccurate?

Yes. 

2008 - 2014 His avg finish in Comp % was 6th 

2015 - 2019 His avg finish in Comp % was 17th

bdplant posted:

I think he’s always been hesitant to make certain risky throws. He’s the anti-Bert....which is a good thing. 

Or it could be that stats are so ridiculously cherry picked they make no sense without context.

Do you have a stat for passing scheme?  How about talent drain/gain?  Oh wait, #1 in separation.  What about 1st year coaching efficiency?  Maybe OC proclivity for wearing boxers?  

Stupid made up shit just like Wall Street derivatives.  

13-3 = Fact.  There is no other explanation for 13-3.  You cannot spin 13-3 into anything else.

Get over yourself McVincePlant. 

Did you really get yourself all worked up over me saying that AR is more careful with the football than his predecessor?

You’ve become TimesFour’s drunk uncle. Drunk Uncle Henry! I guess every family has one. 

Mea Culpa McVincePlant.  I was going to quote your sarcastic quip about how stats are shunned and only feelings mattered or some other horseshit.  The thing is you actually already knew that's what I was driving at even with my drunk uncle misquote didn't you?  Sure you did.  

I'll keep the rest of that page in the hopper for later. 

YATittle posted:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story...tter_impression=true

 

I agree with the writer's assessment of Billy Turner. He has to hold up better in pass protection and help Linsley, more than Bulaga, in blocking pass rushers. Linsley gets double teamed by pass rushers while Turner and Bulaga are blocking one guy, between them. Linsley will lose on a double team blitz up the middle and then he gets blamed unfairly, for it. Turner should be helping him, there. 

Earlier in the season teams with dominant DTs were trying to isolate them vs. Turner, who they thought was the weak link of our o-line. Announcers for one of the early games pretty much said so & you know they are getting insights from staffs in their meeting with them  as to team's gamelans going into games. 

Turner seems like a stop gap guy at guard. I hope the team is looking for the next RG in 2020. Can you imagine having someone like Jenkins at RG? It would be like Sitton and Lang all over again. 

I don't know that they considered him a stop gap G when they signed him to his current FA contract.  He's middling and that's about what middling G's go for these days.  I don't think they signed him for future "depth".  Either way, Gutegreif will be looking for OL in April.

Falcons beat the Saints by blitzing often. I’m sure ABM noticed. 

And for God’s sake some one cover the QB on gadget plays. Especially Tayzom Hill!!!!

I haven't watched a full NOS game in years but can anyone tell me if Brees looks like he could be in his last season?  I've seen parts of games and he looked pretty much as I remember: puts zip on the ball on time and on target, mobile enough to avoid pressure, etc.  Yet I keep seeing references in the press suggesting he's not long for the NFL.

She gets the bAll out quick and accurately had a better season than Brady has a lot more weapons but flat on his back Michael Thomas isn’t use to him

Brees numbers in December. 15 TDs. 0 INTs. 1,200 yards. 125 QB rating. Included a 5 TD game against SF. He’s doing just fine. 

The Teddy stretch IMO was crucial in keeping Brees fresh and healthy.

Brees has looked great the times I've seen him this year. 

Man, X4 is going to have an epic meltdown if the Saints come to town and Hill does anything of any significance. 

I think Peyton will see that that happens.

Oh, I have no doubt Taysom Hill will do something magnificent.

But hey.....Hundley, Pack hung onto him!!

Brees does look good. Saints also play in a dome at least 9 games per season. That helps.

Looking for some winter weather to welcome the Saints to Titletown.

Love how nobody is giving this weeks Saints opponent a chance !!! 

Long range forecast calling for a high of 28, low of 22. 

It's been around, but what a great pic.

Brrrr......looks cold.... 

Right New Orleans?

Not nearly cold enough.

Hot take: Lambeau groundskeepers will refrain from trying to fix the slick turf that plagued players throughout the regular season in efforts to slow Brees & Co. down.

Packdog posted:

Brees does look good. Saints also play in a dome at least 9 games per season. That helps.

Looking for some winter weather to welcome the Saints to Titletown.

Love how nobody is giving this weeks Saints opponent a chance !!! 

Part of me wants the queens to win so we wouldn't have to play the Saints and then potentially the Niners but I can't say I wouldn't thoroughly enjoy seeing MN get throttled.....

I would love nothing more than to see Kirk Cousins in the playoffs. Also it would kind of be hilarious to see the Saints screwed in the playoffs for like the 3rd time in 4 years. Something really comically obvious like Michael Thomas being tripped with a baseball bat on the field and the refs miss it, boom Saints lose.

Downside is Vikes would get boat raced by the Niners and I don’t see how we beat them with Kittle back.

So sure of this you are??

Kittle is a fucking cheat code. He’ll run you over as a blocker then shake a corner in coverage on the same series. He’s not a fair fight. 

Just saw the same tweet you're relaying.

It isn’t fair that he blocks like an animal anddddd runs routes like a damn WR against CBs!

George Kittle is a cheat code.

Kittle/Juszczyk two-way abilities are everything for this offense. Literally everything. @JuiceCheck44 @gkittle46 pic.twitter.com/IEuWutAWtv

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) January 3, 2020

I put money down on Minny vs New Orleans. Which was the biggest mistake I made because I saw -8.5 and I didn’t fully trust NO.

But there is ONE all time, long proven, fail safe rule for betting the playoffs. Never, ever, EVER bet a playoff road dog unless you fully believe they can win the game outright.

i thought Minny could cover. But never thought they’d win. FUCK ME!!!!! 

Saints by 20 as another Viking choke/failure is complete.