I agree on the list of possible teams that could take him, and think the draft pick haul will be minimal.
Why can't they trade him after June 1?
@Boris posted:Why can't they trade him after June 1?
They could. Here's the cap hits for various scenarios next year:
Release pre-6/1: 2023 $100m
Release post-6/1: 2023 $75m, 2024 $25m
Trade pre-6/1: 2023 $40m
Trade post-6/1: 2023 $16m, 2024 $24m
If Rodgers retires it's the same as the trade scenario. Most likely Rodgers and the Packers would agree on a "retirement" post 6/1 so the cap it can be spread out over two years.
Of course while Rodgers does not have a no-trade clause, he does have a "if you try to trade me I'll just retire" unspoken clause. Thankfully for the Packers the cap hit is the same either way.
The one thing they cannot do is cut him.
And no team is going to trade for Rodgers if he doesn’t want to go there.
@bdplant posted:And no team is going to trade for Rodgers if he doesn’t want to go there.
Yup, he will have to be in the dealing from the get go.
He will be whining he wants to play for the vikings
I think AR wants to end his career in GB ....he either plays for us next year or retires.
@GBFanForLife posted:He will be whining he wants to play for the vikings
Then his picture will not be on the Times 4 header. The worst punishment ever.
@GBFanForLife posted:He will be whining he wants to play for the vikings
The Bears, he already owns them.
AR's contract has been written so that after 2023 the cap hit is the lowest. AR being released, traded or retiring after the 2023 season will have the same cap hit (post 6/1):
2024: $8m
2025: $16m
That is of course much more manageable from a cap perspective. The Packers can force AR's hand (releasing him) even if he wants to keep playing for the Packers and it won't cost them anything more than any other option.
The problem with trading AR after this year (or him retiring) is the cap hit in 2024 for AR's dead cap + Love's 5th year option is higher than AR actually playing for us in 2024 ($44m vs $40m). $44m in cap space for Love's 5th year is a lot. That's $16m more than if Rodgers retires after 2023. Then the cap hit during Love's 5th year would be $28m, which is about what Justin Herbert's 5th year cap hit will be.
Given Rodgers in the past has said he wants to play until 40 (which is next year) I can see him coming back next year and (weirdly) the Packers picking up Love's 5th year option even tho he'll have sat on the bench for 4 years before being the starter.
I just don't understand why the Packers would want Rodgers back in 2023. Packers have $3m in cap pace with no easy cuts they can make to create cap room, meaning they'd have to restructure contracts which just screws their cap in 2024 and 205. And you don't do that unless you're gunning for a championship, which this team isn't. Jenkins, Amos, Lewis, Tonyan, Reed, Crosby, Lazard and Ford are free agents. Rodgers is one year older. I just don't see them being better in 2023 than they are in 2022. Meaning it's just time to suck in 2023 while Love gets comfortable and you hope by 2024 you're ready to compete again. This team went all in from 2019-2021 and didn't win a championship. Window is closed. Time to rebuild.
And if you trade Rodgers and he retires, make the compensation dependent on Rodger reporting. Broncos and Bucs did that for Jake Plummer. At this point moving on from Rodgers in the most cap friendly way possible is more important than getting compensation back.
@CUPackFan posted:And if you trade Rodgers and he retires, make the compensation dependent on Rodger reporting. Broncos and Bucs did that for Jake Plummer. At this point moving on from Rodgers in the most cap friendly way possible is more important than getting compensation back.
The most cap friendly way to move on from Rodgers after this season is a post-6/1 trade. That will save $16m in cap space next year. Any other option is actually worse than if he just plays for us in 2023.
@CUPackFan posted:I just don't understand why the Packers would want Rodgers back in 2023. Packers have $3m in cap pace with no easy cuts they can make to create cap room, meaning they'd have to restructure contracts which just screws their cap in 2024 and 205. And you don't do that unless you're gunning for a championship, which this team isn't. Jenkins, Amos, Lewis, Tonyan, Reed, Crosby, Lazard and Ford are free agents. Rodgers is one year older. I just don't see them being better in 2023 than they are in 2022. Meaning it's just time to suck in 2023 while Love gets comfortable and you hope by 2024 you're ready to compete again. This team went all in from 2019-2021 and didn't win a championship. Window is closed. Time to rebuild.
That’s what going all in does to a team’s future. BTW, lots of teams go all in to win a championship. Very few of them win the Super Bowl. The last 2 champs went all in and now they look like dog shot, but they got there. The Packers missed and are now paying the price.
@Pikes Peak posted:Did the Pack go all in?
They thought they did.
I am not sure they can't compete next year. Wrs are a better with another year and off-season and defense should be better with hopefully a new dc.
Early offensive struggles , IMHO, were more about injuries than anything else. We went the entire preseason and some in early season, without our best two o-lineman, when they did come back they were not at their all pro level and Jenkins was playing out of position. Just when o-line started improving we had Cobb, Lazard, Doubs, & Watson miss games. Add to that Tonyan not being 100% yet coming off ACL. So I really think the offense will be better next season. On defense it will all be about who the DC is. The "whole" has to be better than the "parts" .... this year's defense is the farthest from that in my Packer memory. Everyone wanted to trash Mike Pettine but his defenses were 18th, 18th, & 9th in yards; and 22nd, 9th, & 13th in pts ...with less talent than we have right now. Currently we are 16th in yards and 22nd in pts. ...MLF wanted a "rah rah" guy, let's hope he makes abetter decision next time.
The #Packers and Aaron Rodgers have made no decisions on sitting the four-time NFL MVP if Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention – a scenario the team would work through with Rodgers, who will play through a painful rib contusion vs. the #Bears. https://t.co/44Vkq7g10C
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 4, 2022
While there would be value in getting Love game action, the Packers don't really need it to influence their decision-making or evaluate a player they traded up to select 26th overall in the 2020 draft. They've seen his progress over three years in practice -- improvement that was on display when he relieved an injured Rodgers against the Eagles, completing 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and one touchdown.
Really don't agree with that from Pelissero.
The problem with not playing him is if you intend to showcase Love for a possible trade to another team those teams aren’t in the practices.
I also think Jordan Love playing and playing well puts some pressure on Rodgers to come back and have a decent 2023 season. My personal belief on why Rodgers played so well in 2020 and 2021 was he used the Love selection as another chip on his shoulder to try to prove people wrong. He’s been at his best when he feels slighted or counted out.
I don’t see him starting until Rodgers leaves. When Rodgers cap hit goes down then the team can build around Love. I also think that we draft another QB in the near future.
@FLPACKER posted:Early offensive struggles , IMHO, were more about injuries than anything else. We went the entire preseason and some in early season, without our best two o-lineman, when they did come back they were not at their all pro level and Jenkins was playing out of position. Just when o-line started improving we had Cobb, Lazard, Doubs, & Watson miss games. Add to that Tonyan not being 100% yet coming off ACL. So I really think the offense will be better next season. On defense it will all be about who the DC is. The "whole" has to be better than the "parts" .... this year's defense is the farthest from that in my Packer memory. Everyone wanted to trash Mike Pettine but his defenses were 18th, 18th, & 9th in yards; and 22nd, 9th, & 13th in pts ...with less talent than we have right now. Currently we are 16th in yards and 22nd in pts. ...MLF wanted a "rah rah" guy, let's hope he makes abetter decision next time.
Yep, Mike Pettine was a decent coordinator who made a fatal mistake vs. Tom Brady and paid the price.
Barry seemed to be on Pettine’s level until that Giants game earlier this year. From that point forward, his players seem to have stopped playing hard for him. Maybe the only time I felt that happened to Pettine was after McCarthy got fired and the team clearly was out of contention.
I’d rather have Pettine than Barry although truth be told, it would be nice to have someone better than either of those guys.
Even with the mistake on the pass play before half, our defense picked Brady off 3 times, held him to a passer rating of 73 and only gave up 76 yards on the ground. If we hadn't turned the ball over twice ourselves that game we would have won & that play forgotten.
Yeah Pettine thought Brady was playing for five more yards to get a field goal, hence ordering King to play like a fool for the sideline route.
@CUPackFan posted:So I'm reading that a trade is possible. Packers would have a $40.3m cap hit in 2023 if they trade him before June 1st (which is more likely than post-June 1st). That is the accelerated cap hit due to bonuses already paid out and prorated to the future. The cap hit if they cut him though, is like $100m because I believe his salary and bonuses in 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed thus still owed if they cut him. Trading him would put the new team on the hook for those guarantees.
So Packers can and must trade him. There just isn't a future here for a 39 year old declining QB when you have a young QB on the roster. And there is a market for Rodgers - Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Texans, Saints, Giants, Seahawks, and Commanders all do not have a legit starting QB on their roster for 2023 (although Giants and Seahawks could resign their current QBs). At this point I'd take a 3rd round pick just to move on with a $40m cap hit so we can start rebuilding in the Love era. So it is possible and I think Gute has to do it. Rodgers just can't be the starting QB in 2023.
It’s the cap hit plus you have to pay top 15 QB money to Love on his 5th year option. The dead money plus Love instantly puts them over the cap in 2023. You still have to sign your draft picks and field a team.
@michiganjoe posted:While there would be value in getting Love game action, the Packers don't really need it to influence their decision-making or evaluate a player they traded up to select 26th overall in the 2020 draft. They've seen his progress over three years in practice -- improvement that was on display when he relieved an injured Rodgers against the Eagles, completing 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and one touchdown.
Really don't agree with that from Pelissero.
They wouldn't need it to evaluate him, but not giving him experience in real games under real pressure is stupid. You can't recreate an actual game in practice. And if the games don't "count", and you're playing against teams where it still does (like we are going to be) it's an even better time to get that experience.
If they are eliminated from the playoffs and Rodgers is still playing it means one thing to me, Rodgers is retiring after this season and he wants to play his career out. Any other reason is stupid.
@fightphoe93 posted:I’d rather have Pettine than Barry although truth be told, it would be nice to have someone better than either of those guys.
Capers and Pettine both had issues with a complete lack of speed and talent at ILB. So much so they schemed away from having to use two a lot.
Barry gets two and has worse results. There are other factors, as well, but I'd argue Barry is the weakest of the three, maybe even four with Donatell. Yes, he's really bad.
Would not be surprised if the decision on ARs playing time going forward might be revisited after the Bears game. Either by AR, coaching staff, or both. He really loves playing against TBSS.
@BrainDed posted:It’s the cap hit plus you have to pay top 15 QB money to Love on his 5th year option. The dead money plus Love instantly puts them over the cap in 2023. You still have to sign your draft picks and field a team.
Except 2023 is not Love's 5th year option - 2024 is. Their cap is screwed no matter what they do, I'd just rather see the team move on from Rodgers and give Love the 2023 season to see what we have.
EDIT: I'd also like to move on from the drama Rodgers has brought to the team. I mean do we even know if Rodgers is going to participate in the offseason program? We assume he will due to the failures of 2022 but he may not care.
Are we really still blaming this season on OTA's?
Jesus Christ on a cracker.
@CUPackFan posted:Except 2023 is not Love's 5th year option - 2024 is. Their cap is screwed no matter what they do, I'd just rather see the team move on from Rodgers and give Love the 2023 season to see what we have.
EDIT: I'd also like to move on from the drama Rodgers has brought to the team. I mean do we even know if Rodgers is going to participate in the offseason program? We assume he will due to the failures of 2022 but he may not care.
My bad, Love salary escalates in 2024. Still, the cap hit from trading Rodgers in the off-season will be devastating.
When the Packers extended Rodgers to this contract, they and he basically committed / agreed to him playing through 2024.
@H5 posted:When the Packers extended Rodgers to this contract, they shit the bed.
Send Rodgers to the Giants or Commanders. Both need better QBs, the two cities would be bigger markets for him to play in and allow him to continue showing off his ego on a bigger stage. The Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Texans, and Saints aren't going anywhere soon. The Seahawks seem to have resurrected Geno. It also depends on if Sean Payton returns to coaching and where he lands, as Payton has said he wants to come back...
I saw a graphic during SNF where the salary cap is expected to be $220M or more. Roughly $12M more than this year.
Not a cure-all, but it certainly helps.
@Fandame posted:Send Rodgers to the Giants or Commanders. Both need better QBs, the two cities would be bigger markets for him to play in and allow him to continue showing off his ego on a bigger stage. The Colts, Falcons, Panthers, Texans, and Saints aren't going anywhere soon. The Seahawks seem to have resurrected Geno. It also depends on if Sean Payton returns to coaching and where he lands, as Payton has said he wants to come back...
IMO they can’t send him anywhere he does not want to go. He doesn’t strike me as an east coast guy. But in truth who knows. A couple of years ago SF, LAR and Denver were ripe for the picking for forward looking management, looks too late for them. Vegas could still be viable. Derek Carr anyone?