@FLPACKER posted:I still think Rodgers is going to retire
Hard to see him passing on those $$$$$$$$$$.
@Fandame posted:So, bottom line, what's the hit to the team?
If Aaron Rodgers retires/is traded in 2023 the Packers would be left with $40.3M of dead salary cap they need to account for on their 2023 cap year, or between the 2023 & 2024 cap years if executed post June 1.
********
And No - There is no way for this dead money to go away or be pushed out any further. This $40.3M is backloaded contract math (the cash has already been paid to Rodgers) from his 2019 & 2021 restructures and from his 2022 guaranteed roster bonus which still need to be capped.
Per Ken Ingalls.
When Rodgers signed the extension in March it looked to me to be "3 more years", or through 2024.
I still think that's the case unless he decides to retire.
The extension was to give him that chance to play his entire career with GB.
He says "the desire has to be mutual", but that I think is for his ego so the fans/media talk about him/it. The Packers showed their desire with the $150mm, which comes with undesirable cap hits with an early exit.
They want him through 2023 at a minimum, but more likely through 2024 - he turns 41 in Dec '24. Seems like a good time to retire.
Make the retirement post June 1 of '25 and the cap hit is more palatable.
But if MLF can't see that Barry needs to be replaced, then he needs to go.
@H5 posted:When Rodgers signed the extension in March it looked to me to be "3 more years", or through 2024.
I still think that's the case unless he decides to retire.
The extension was to give him that chance to play his entire career with GB.
He says "the desire has to be mutual", but that I think is for his ego so the fans/media talk about him/it. The Packers showed their desire with the $150mm, which comes with undesirable cap hits with an early exit.
They want him through 2023 at a minimum, but more likely through 2024 - he turns 41 in Dec '24. Seems like a good time to retire.
Make the retirement post June 1 of '25 and the cap hit is more palatable.
And the fans are just supposed to accept that he has played 5 years too long? Favre all over again.
Maybe Rodgers becomes the most expensive back up QB and clip board holder in NFL history.
@ammo posted:Maybe Rodgers becomes the most expensive back up QB and clip board holder in NFL history.
Are you tokin with Goldie?
If he won't retire, won't accept a trade, and Packers want Love to start what are the other options?
@ammo posted:If he won't retire, won't accept a trade, and Packers want Love to start what are the other options?
It’s the only leverage the Packers have, and since there’s no way that AR would accept being the backup, he’d have to either retire or accept a trade.
It would likely get really ugly, and it would most certainly burn several bridges.
Seems we’ve seen all of this before. There’s no good solution unless AR and the organization can agree on what happens next season.
@vitaflo posted:Statistically this is AR's worst season he's played. He had career worsts in:
- Yards
- Yards per game
- Yards per attempt
- Passer rating
- TDs (2nd worst)
- INTs (worst since first starting season)
This is for full seasons. We can say it's just a fluke year, but when you statistically have your worst season ever at age 39, it's probably time to be put out to pasture, even if you think you have something left in the tank. Father time isn't kind.
Very MVPeewee 
I'm wondering if the timing of Rodgers and Murphy's retirement will somehow coincide.
Murphy came on board shortly after Rodgers was drafted, so his legacy will largely be built on what ARod accomplished during his tenure (Titletown District not included).
Murphy's comments on his retirement indicate he would serve his full term, and I can't see Rodgers playing another 3 years, so it may not be possible, but it does make some sense. Perhaps interestingly, Murphy became President December 2007, so he was there from the first year ARod became the starter, who had been 'waiting' for 3 years, just like Love...
For now, Love's legacy (such as it is) is much more closely associated to Gute.
JMO, others may vary.
@vitaflo posted:
We can say it's just a fluke year, but when you statistically have your worst season ever at age 39, it's probably time to be put out to pasture, even if you think you have something left in the tank. Father time isn't kind.
Two different QBs in style and play, but both HoF’ers and in the group go GOATs. Favre’s age 39 season was good, but not great by his standards. His age 40 season was pretty pedestrian in large part to an injury affecting his throwing and an average team. In his age 41 season, he was 4th in MVP voting.
I wouldn’t write off AR just yet. It would be sooo 2017/2018.
For what it's worth, the local radio in NY is surprisingly filled with hosts and callers eager to find a way to get 12 to the Jets. The interest is a lot higher than I thought it would be from the fanbase side. I can't see 12 wanting to go there, but I'd let the Jets try to sell him on it. Same with the Raiders.
I'm not sure I like Murphy getting to remain head of the thrupple of indecision if it means the focus of the organization is getting him to the finish line with as little friction as possible instead of looking out for the long term interests of the football side of the organization. I can't help but think part of letting 12 finish his career in Green and Gold is it makes him a more profitable asset to the franchise post career.
Murphy doesn't want to risk a media cluster**** if it got out that they were taking offers for 12. It's a bad situation with two short timers looking to protect their legacies over making the team better for the future. 12 has no interest in getting traded and I'm not sure he even cares about another championship. His resume is set and he's said more than once he's content with it. It's down to whether he thinks he can play well enough not to embarrass himself and collect another check. Going somewhere else comes with real pressure and expectations and he loses the overly friendly media gaggle he's charmed in Green Bay.
@PackLandVA posted:Two different QBs in style and play, but both HoF’ers and in the group go GOATs. Favre’s age 39 season was good, but not great by his standards. His age 40 season was pretty pedestrian in large part to an injury affecting his throwing and an average team. In his age 41 season, he was 4th in MVP voting.
I wouldn’t write off AR just yet. It would be sooo 2017/2018.
Yup, anything can happen. Cherry picking a guy here , a season there is easy.
How many players have there been in the NFL, how many came back to their previous level at 39 and stayed there for a couple years. I dare say not many.
Be great if he did. Lots riding on that hope.
I still think the Titans situation bears watching. I would have said the Steelers as well, but it looks like their QB situation may be resolved. I say those teams because I know 12 respects Tomlin, and Vrabel is cut from the same cloth.
The Jets should be interested but I can’t imagine Rodgers wanting to go to that media market. That being said, they have a good team (like Tennessee) that desperately needs a QB.
@titmfatied posted:For what it's worth, the local radio in NY is surprisingly filled with hosts and callers eager to find a way to get 12 to the Jets. The interest is a lot higher than I thought it would be from the fanbase side. I can't see 12 wanting to go there, but I'd let the Jets try to sell him on it. Same with the Raiders.
I'm not sure I like Murphy getting to remain head of the thrupple of indecision if it means the focus of the organization is getting him to the finish line with as little friction as possible instead of looking out for the long term interests of the football side of the organization. I can't help but think part of letting 12 finish his career in Green and Gold is it makes him a more profitable asset to the franchise post career.
Murphy doesn't want to risk a media cluster**** if it got out that they were taking offers for 12. It's a bad situation with two short timers looking to protect their legacies over making the team better for the future. 12 has no interest in getting traded and I'm not sure he even cares about another championship. His resume is set and he's said more than once he's content with it. It's down to whether he thinks he can play well enough not to embarrass himself and collect another check. Going somewhere else comes with real pressure and expectations and he loses the overly friendly media gaggle he's charmed in Green Bay.
If he's looking at profitability and media exposure, then Murphy's interest would be to keep Rodgers in Green Bay over anything else. As you say, it's not likely in the team's best interest.
If Rodgers comes back, the Packers are likely in the window of 7-11 wins. They aren't going to crater any worse than they did this year. Rodgers as the starting QB gets them prime-time games which allows more shots of the sledding hill and the announcers to wax poetic about the frozen tundra and how it's a bucket list experience to come there. It's good for the team's bottom line. The same team with a window of 7-11 wins with Love as QB gets slotted as the early game on Sundays with the D-level announcers. We'll all turn in to watch (and maybe more enthusiastically with Love as the QB), but the casual fan isn't going to watch. Green Bay would just be a normal team with no "star" to tune into to cheer against or for.
The problem now is what every team with a star player runs into at some point. Rodgers was not MVP level this year, but most of the NFC playoff teams would trade their guy for him straight up right now if there was no difference in salary. Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith are 4 of the QBs. All 4 of those teams would swap out Rodgers for their guy right now. It's likely MM would swap out Dak Prescott as well. Maybe Jalen Hurts is a better option. Tom Brady is Tom Brady.
The problem is that Aaron Rodgers is still an above-average NFL QB, but is being paid as a top 5 player. In other words, you can't spend 50 million on a guy who isn't a difference maker. You spend that kind of money on Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, or Burrow.
I think TN might be of interest to AR, I remember Vrabel spoke to him at length after the game this season. A reunion with Davante in LV is a possibility but Josh McDaniels is a unproven, a real toss-up. No softballs from NY media so that is factor, but Pat McAfee will get his talking points out. GB is known, comfortable setting, but new challenge elsewhere could ignite him.
In Brett Favre's final six passes as a Packer: He went 2-6 for 12 yards, concluding in a game-sealing, season-ending INT at Lambeau Field. In Aaron Rodgers' final six passes this year: He went 2-6 for 12 yards, concluding in a game-sealing, season-ending INT at Lambeau Field.
More proof we're living in a simulation and the programmers are lazy sadists.
@Pikes Peak posted:How many players have there been in the NFL, how many came back to their previous level at 39 and stayed there for a couple years. I dare say not many.
There are very few QB's that have even played at 40 or later. The only ones who played well are Favre (one year) and Brady. The only other QB's with significant playing time after age 40 (other than a few games) are Warren Moon and Vinnie Testaverde and neither was good at that age.
Brady skews everyone's brain with how the QB position works. QB's at 40+ just do not happen and do not work. It's why Love was drafted because to play well even in your late 30's doesn't really happen either. Where Rodgers is now is where QB's tend to regress to. All odds are against him going forward. We have basically every QB in existence as proof.
I don't think the NY media environment would faze Rodgers. His tendency toward snark would play better there than almost anywhere else. And he'd have the anonymity a huge city brings. It's likely the Jets are the 7 or 8th most popular team in the city; maybe ahead of the Islanders. There are thousands of celebrities in NY at any given moment compared to around 50 in Green Bay between July and January.
@vitaflo posted:There are very few QB's that have even played at 40 or later. The only ones who played well are Favre (one year) and Brady. The only other QB's with significant playing time after age 40 (other than a few games) are Warren Moon and Vinnie Testaverde and neither was good at that age.
Brady skews everyone's brain with how the QB position works. QB's at 40+ just do not happen and do not work. It's why Love was drafted because to play well even in your late 30's doesn't really happen either. Where Rodgers is now is where QB's tend to regress to. All odds are against him going forward. We have basically every QB in existence as proof.
Brady totally fucks the minds of NFL fans. What he has accomplished is insane. He is one of the reasons fans think the Packers failed by winning oNLy 2 Super Bowls with Favre and Rodgers.
@vitaflo posted:There are very few QB's that have even played at 40 or later. The only ones who played well are Favre (one year) and Brady. The only other QB's with significant playing time after age 40 (other than a few games) are Warren Moon and Vinnie Testaverde and neither was good at that age.
Brady skews everyone's brain with how the QB position works. QB's at 40+ just do not happen and do not work. It's why Love was drafted because to play well even in your late 30's doesn't really happen either. Where Rodgers is now is where QB's tend to regress to. All odds are against him going forward. We have basically every QB in existence as proof.
I think we’ll start seeing more QBs playing into their 40’s because the rules have changed so that the position is much more protected compared to 10-20 years ago. The running QBs won’t last but the good pocket passers will be able to play a long time with a little luck.
Also, one of the reasons why Brady has lasted as long as he has (imo) is that he’s somewhat gone against the grain with his diet and exercise regiment…things like focusing on more whole anti inflammatory foods and more stretching/less heavy weight lifting. QBs don’t need to be giants like linebackers and linemen. Protein shakes and 400lbs squats don’t lead to longevity.
He's still playing because he's had DMZ quality O lines for almost 20 years.
@grignon posted:I don't think the NY media environment would faze Rodgers. His tendency toward snark would play better there than almost anywhere else. And he'd have the anonymity a huge city brings. It's likely the Jets are the 7 or 8th most popular team in the city; maybe ahead of the Islanders. There are thousands of celebrities in NY at any given moment compared to around 50 in Green Bay between July and January.
The only thing the Jets fans love more than the Jets winning is tearing them to pieces when they disappoint. The general delusional sentiment I gather is they're impatient and think they're a QB away from winning their 1st championship in 50+ years.
Rodgers isn't fun snark, he tends to lean into condescension. It wouldn't take long for it to get personal and combative. It would be entertaining but ugly. GB media tends toward professional and the team seems to exert a lot of PR pressure to keep them that way. The NY media is a whole different animal. They're comfortable being nasty and there's a cohort of TMZ level gossip rags that would be more than happy to needle him to supply fodder for the backpage antics.
I almost wish he'd go there so he could gain an appreciation for how well he's been treated his entire tenure in GB.
@bdplant posted:I think we’ll start seeing more QBs playing into their 40’s because the rules have changed so that the position is much more protected compared to 10-20 years ago. The running QBs won’t last but the good pocket passers will be able to play a long time with a little luck.
Certainly the rules help, but even as Rodgers said, the first thing to go is the legs and they are an important part of passing. Arm strength also goes (probably related).
Everyone saw how Peyton and Brees's arm strength fell off a cliff at the end of their careers (and quickly). Peyton was partially the injuries but still. The first thing I noticed when Love came in against Philly was just how much velocity he had on the ball compared to AR. He also was just way quicker to move around the pocket.
There's no doubt Rodgers brain is still all-time, but eventually arm, leg, speed, etc just goes. Even if you can still make all the throws if you can't make them quick enough, or move quick enough to make them, you aren't gonna be making them.
@titmfatied posted:I almost wish he'd go there so he could gain an appreciation for how well he's been treated his entire tenure in GB.
You do read the commentary on this board, right? My oh my has its changed over the recent years. It’s Favre-Ian like.
Wonder if his image is taken off the TimesFour banner.
@D J posted:If Aaron Rodgers retires/is traded in 2023 the Packers would be left with $40.3M of dead salary cap they need to account for on their 2023 cap year, or between the 2023 & 2024 cap years if executed post June 1.
********
And No - There is no way for this dead money to go away or be pushed out any further. This $40.3M is backloaded contract math (the cash has already been paid to Rodgers) from his 2019 & 2021 restructures and from his 2022 guaranteed roster bonus which still need to be capped.Per Ken Ingalls.
if that is it - then that's fine with me, we eat it over 2 years, 20m/year and be done...if we can backload 10's first deal, that would have average qb money ' ish...if we have more dead cap after that, that's what i don't know...
@Goalline posted:Brady totally fucks the minds of NFL fans. What he has accomplished is insane. He is one of the reasons fans think the Packers failed by winning oNLy 2 Super Bowls with Favre and Rodgers.
One SB appearance in the past 25 seasons.
No one has to think about Brady to realize the level of suckitude that is.
@vitaflo posted:Certainly the rules help, but even as Rodgers said, the first thing to go is the legs and they are an important part of passing. Arm strength also goes (probably related).
Everyone saw how Peyton and Brees's arm strength fell off a cliff at the end of their careers (and quickly). Peyton was partially the injuries but still. The first thing I noticed when Love came in against Philly was just how much velocity he had on the ball compared to AR. He also was just way quicker to move around the pocket.
There's no doubt Rodgers brain is still all-time, but eventually arm, leg, speed, etc just goes. Even if you can still make all the throws if you can't make them quick enough, or move quick enough to make them, you aren't gonna be making them.
Brees never had that strong of an arm and playing more than half his games in a dome every season certainly helped.
@D J posted:One SB appearance in the past 25 seasons.
No one has to think about Brady to realize the level of suckitude that is.
Apparently you believe that all a team needs to win the SB is stellar QB play.
I believe that each one of Brady's SB-winning teams had top 10 defensive units.
I think Rodgers played with 2 top 10 defenses in his career. 2009 and 2010.
The ablity to generate pressure by rushing 4 is necessary to win titles more often than not. You need multiple high-level pass rushers and a run-stuffer to go with them to allow them to sell out on the pass rush. You can also generate more pressure by having a 4-5 deep DB unit to allow the pass rush more time to get home, but you have to have a pass rush against good teams in the playoffs.
Packers 1996: Reggie, Dotson, Sean Jones, Brown
Packers 2010: CM3, Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett
Losing Rashan Gary wasn't the reason they had a down year this year, but losing him probably reduced the Packers' ceiling this year more than losing anyone else would have (maybe including Rodgers)
Having a pass rusher that the opponent has to have a plan for on every play is game changing. Gary was that player. When he went down, that's when I gave up hope that they could recover to be a Super Bowl caliber team.
@Thunderbird posted:defense still wins championships.
Marv Levy would say it's special teams that wins championships.