#Packers needed to find out if Jordan Love and a bunch of rookie skill position players were good.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) December 18, 2023
Well, here's Love when targeting rookies this season:
153/228 for 1,781 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs.
67.1 completion percentage, 7.8 yards/attempt, 104.4 passer rating.
7th round pick, first-year starter at LT.
Preferred starter at TE out (though the backup looks like a keeper).
Dinged up starting RB on a snap count and the backup out. Not much of a running game all year long.
Only deep threat WR out.
Dinged up WRs in Wicks & Reed (kudos to both of those rookies for gutting it out).
Love played just fine yesterday and continues to grow.
I would say at minimum, Love’s play has earned him the chance to succeed when he has a better team around him. At minimum he deserves another couple of years to perhaps develop even further than he has as the younger guys around him get healthy and improve.
Now, if he doesn’t take another step in the next 2 years, I might at least think about trying to find someone more consistently good. That said, he’s shown enough that the Pack should focus on building around him instead of focusing on upgrading his spot through 2024 and 2025. Maybe the one exception would be, Love suffers a catastrophic injury ala Don Majkowski that causes an obvious decline in play in 2024.
@fightphoe93 posted:I would say at minimum, Love’s play has earned him the chance to succeed when he has a better team around him. At minimum he deserves another couple of years to perhaps develop even further than he has as the younger guys around him get healthy and improve.
Now, if he doesn’t take another step in the next 2 years, I might at least think about trying to find someone more consistently good. That said, he’s shown enough that the Pack should focus on building around him instead of focusing on upgrading his spot through 2024 and 2025. Maybe the one exception would be, Love suffers a catastrophic injury ala Don Majkowski that causes an obvious decline in play in 2024.
I think that Love has established he is at least an average NFL starting QB and he has the physical tools, and more important, the poise to improve beyond that. You can win with the current version of Love if the surrounding talent is good enough (Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are not really any better, for example). I'm not sure if he's ever going to approach the Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert level and that's fine. You don't expect that out of any QB.
The balancing act will be how they pay him. Jordan Love playing at this level for the next 5 years at 20-25 million a year is something you can be successful with as it will allow you to allocate salary cap dollars to getting better players at other key positions. Jordan Love playing at this level for 45-50 million a year the next 5 years is something that will doom you to mediocrity. If he continues to progress to being a top 10 guy, then you can be successful with the larger salary as well. The question is whether he'll ever get there.
That's the tradeoff you get with the "sit and learn" philosophy in the salary cap era. If this was Love's 1st or 2nd year, you'd have another 2-3 years of a rookie-level cost controlled contract to build a team around and see how good he got with more game reps to decide whether to do a Daniel Jones type extension. The Packers have to decide next year at the latest and even then you'd have to do a franchise tag to keep him. Love is good enough with enough room for growth that someone will overpay him if they don't lock him up.
If I remember correctly, Josh Allens first year as a starter was not that good. And there are times this year where he looks like a rookie. I like what I see from Love. He has to get settled on a few things but I remember watching Rodgers 1st year thinking the same thing. Rodgers always held the ball too long and would not throw it away. Love does not do that but he needs to work on getting his feet right. He does enough wow stuff now to think when he gets the experience he will be fine.
Year 2 will say a lot about Love. Both how he improves and how D coordinators scheme him with a year of tape. Mac Jones looked good his first year before he fell of a cliff his second.
One thing I’d like to see more of from love is stop lofting the ball so much. So many of this throws have a lot of air under them which I wonder contributes to them being under thrown and DBs being able to play the ball.
He doesn’t need to put it on a rope like Favre but some lasers would help him in certain situations.
They have to know by now whether Love is a NFL QB. If they think he is the time is now to get him in the fold long term. Get the best deal you can that benefits both sides. Of course, he may not want to be in GB for life. There may be a job opening in LA (Stafford)in a year or so. They may have to bid against that.
The Packers have not had a 100 yard receiver OR a 100 yard rusher in a single game all season.
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 18, 2023
Yet they are the 11th ranked offense by DVOA.
Jordan Love is making this thing go with his arm, and he’s doing it in a variety of ways.
@vitaflo posted:Year 2 will say a lot about Love. Both how he improves and how D coordinators scheme him with a year of tape. Mac Jones looked good his first year before he fell of a cliff his second.
One thing I’d like to see more of from love is stop lofting the ball so much. So many of this throws have a lot of air under them which I wonder contributes to them being under thrown and DBs being able to play the ball.
He doesn’t need to put it on a rope like Favre but some lasers would help him in certain situations.
I agree. in contrast Baker was putting some zip on his passes and it really made Love's lofts stand out. It allows the DBs to react and make a play on the ball and in other cases the WR has to slow down and try to catch the underthrow, where in stride could be 6. Definitely an area for improvement. if he can, hes 100% a QB you want to continue to build around
@WolfPack posted:I agree. in contrast Baker was putting some zip on his passes and it really made Love's lofts stand out. It allows the DBs to react and make a play on the ball and in other cases the WR has to slow down and try to catch the underthrow, where in stride could be 6. Definitely an area for improvement. if he can, hes 100% a QB you want to continue to build around
When you have two or three guys running free on every dropback, it becomes much easier to throw darts. Love faced an actual defense again this week. Devito and Baker had career games vs a clusterf*** of a unit. Not really comparable. Love will address all these "flaws" in the offseason. There's no reason to believe it will be ignored.
@DH13 posted:The Packers have not had a 100 yard receiver OR a 100 yard rusher in a single game all season.
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 18, 2023
Yet they are the 11th ranked offense by DVOA.
Jordan Love is making this thing go with his arm, and he’s doing it in a variety of ways.
Nice. It's much better to see a QB spreading the ball around getting everyone involved than focusing on only one guy. Defending is also harder when you don't know where the ball is going.
As far as Love lofting the ball, he may be trying to be too careful with his throws. He has remarked more than once that MLF has encouraged him to just sling it, yet there's what he has absorbed from Rodgers and his miniscule interceptions thrown. Once Love confidently finds that line between "just slinging it" and "don't put the ball into the other team's hands," I think he'll be a lot better.
The lofting the ball thing is so strange. Can't remember anyone I've ever watched with his arm strength that had that flaw. It's almost like sometimes he's not trusting what he thinks he sees from the defense when he pulls the trigger and the split second hesitation is taking velocity off the ball. It's like doubt is creeping into his throw.
I really want free plays at the end of a blowout where he's under center and working 3, 5, or 7 step drop and fire timing plays.
They should also have a playlist of every easy throw he's missed over the season and run through it if the game is well in hand to get the yips out of his arm. He has so much potential if he can get reliable with his fundamentals.
I'd like to see him take a seven-step drop and stretch his throws out on a line. Instead of thinking of dropping it into a bucket. think of getting it there on a line. Watch a lot of Favre tape.
@titmfatied posted:The lofting the ball thing is so strange. Can't remember anyone I've ever watched with his arm strength that had that flaw. It's almost like sometimes he's not trusting what he thinks he sees from the defense when he pulls the trigger and the split second hesitation is taking velocity off the ball. It's like doubt is creeping into his throw.
I really want free plays at the end of a blowout where he's under center and working 3, 5, or 7 step drop and fire timing plays.
They should also have a playlist of every easy throw he's missed over the season and run through it if the game is well in hand to get the yips out of his arm. He has so much potential if he can get reliable with his fundamentals.
Rodgers took on that habit the last two or three years he was in GB. Or at least it was more pronounced. He may not have had an arm like Marino, but as he got on in years, the floater trying to drop it in a bucket became commonplace. Between that and waiting forever to deliver a screen/outlet pass, he did his young targets no favors.
Just like Love's footwork will be addressed, the more time he spends studying film will help him sort out the type of ball he throws. As long as Clements is around, I trust those things will be cleaned up. I think on the occasions he misses badly, there's a quandary in his head between throwing a fast ball vs touch pass, and more times than not he errs on the side of caution.
QB Jordan Love has posted six games this season with multiple TD passes and zero INTs.
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 19, 2023
Tied for No. 3 in NFL history among QBs (per Stathead) within their first 15 career starts behind only Brock Purdy (eight) and Dan Marino (seven).
Per @packers Dope Sheet pic.twitter.com/6NU6mAxCnF
How spoiled are we at the QB position when we have a new guy at QB doing things that only a handful of guys have done their first year as a starter yet we nitpick any flaw he might have in his game?
I know it's "easier" to compile stats today compared to Rodgers first season - even more so for Favre's first season - but Love is ballin out.
@PackerHawk posted:How spoiled are we at the QB position when we have a new guy at QB doing things that only a handful of guys have done their first year as a starter yet we nitpick any flaw he might have in his game?
I know it's "easier" to compile stats today compared to Rodgers first season - even more so for Favre's first season - but Love is ballin out.
A good number of people went on record a month ago saying he would never be the guy. I must say it was very surprising to see it on this board, considering most of us have witnessed nearly thirty years worth of high level play at the position. It's not surprising in the least coming from outside GB circles. People make grand proclamations every hour and double down even when proven wrong. But the idea that diehard Packer fans were finished with him after eight or nine games was startling, and really absurd.
The numbers bear out Love's physical talent and reflect things he needs to work on after year 1. But it's the intangibles that stand out to me during such a roller coaster ride this season. The kid has great presence on the field for a first year starter. He doesn't get too high or too low. He doesn't melt down when things have gone poorly. He doesn't respond to his own mistakes by curling up in a ball and surrendering. He doesn't compound those mistakes with more risky play. Most of all, to me, the mark of a qb with nads is how he performs in third and fourth down situations. And he's been very good throughout the season in those spots.
That bullet to Reed on Sunday came on third and fourteen. He had to step up in the pocket to avoid a sack, and he had the presence to take a shot to the end zone down by ten late in the third quarter. Not too many people had much to say about his footwork or his accuracy on that play. I wonder why. He's also been saddled with a garbage running game and without his main deep threat most of the season.
Guilty as charged. I think I will wait another year to pass judgement on him.
I think some of his misses comes at very inopportune times (3rd or 4th downs where a completion either moves the chains, or a TD), which makes his misses stand out more. Overall he's looking like a keeper for sure!
twice in the last game (that I could see) we had two receivers in the same spot again, and I think Reed was involved both times. clean that shit up, do your QB a solid
@DH13 posted:The Packers have not had a 100 yard receiver OR a 100 yard rusher in a single game all season.
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) December 18, 2023
Yet they are the 11th ranked offense by DVOA.
Jordan Love is making this thing go with his arm, and he’s doing it in a variety of ways.
I find this absolutely crazy.
Edit: In a positive way for Love. Any detractors on here are high. Kid has showed he's a player. End of story.
@Tavis Smiley posted:I find this absolutely crazy.
Edit: In a positive way for Love. Any detractors on here are high. Kid has showed he's a player. End of story.
Things were dicey when Favre lost Sterling Sharpe as his main target. But Holmgren had already been utilizing the many different pieces on the roster. They would end up becoming unstoppable. The same can't be said for the offense a year ago. Maybe it's fortunate timing for Love. But the weapons all growing together around him are the most promising group since the early Rodgers bunch. There's a lot to look forward to, even without a clear #1 wr.
A clear #1 may become more evident next season. Who, could be Doubs, Wicks, Reed or maybe even Watson.
The difference between this group and the one AR started with is he already had established pro bowl level starters in Jennings and Driver on the roster. The new guys were Jordy, James Jones and Finley, then Cobb.
Love has zip zero nadda for a veteran stabilizer in this group. The closest thing he has is AJ and AJD in the backfield.
On top of that he's got two second year lineman taking most the snaps at both ends. You'd almost expect to see an advanced college grade performance from this offense, which it has been from time to time. But then there are other times when they're pushing elite. It's kind of bananas.
@ammo posted:A clear #1 may become more evident next season. Who, could be Doubs, Wicks, Reed or maybe even Watson.
True, but that didn't matter in 2008. The level of play was so high between Driver, Jennings, Nelson etc that a clear WR1 wasn't a huge priority. Each guy brought their own strengths to the passing game and it made things that much more difficult on defenses, because any one of five or six weapons could do real damage. Kind of what we've seen so far this season. I think the fact that a Heath, Toure, even a Ben Sims can contribute is a feather in the cap of Matty's scheme. Not to mention Wilson and Musgrave prior to injury, as well as Kraft when his time came. The offense is a lot closer to a top ten status than any other unit.
@artis posted:True, but that didn't matter in 2008. The level of play was so high between Driver, Jennings, Nelson etc that a clear WR1 wasn't a huge priority. Each guy brought their own strengths to the passing game and it made things that much more difficult on defenses, because any one of five or six weapons could do real damage.
This year is much more balanced. 2008 was a monster year from Jennings (1200+ yds 9TDs) closely followed by Driver (1000 yds 5TDs). They missed 1 game all year between the two of them. There was a clear pecking order.
Jones and Nelson's damage amounted to 630 yds and 3 TDs combined. The biggest difference for 12's first year was Grant getting 1200 yds rushing.
Everything is spread out with our 2023 weapons.
It's interesting to wonder if this group could come close to what that 2008 group produced from 2009-11. Jennings was sublime while 80 was fading and then Jordy grabbed the baton during the SB and elevated everything to another level. Jones is as unselfish and team oriented as any #3 in the history of the game.
Always assume someone's feeling are going to get hurt when second contract money gets divided up and someone figures out they might not be in the future plans.
Have to like the current TEs chances of wildly outperforming the tease Finley was.
Rodgers was out of his mind when he was chasing greatness at that age though. Getting to top 3 in the NFL at QB requires an otherworldly level of competitiveness.
I’m excited to see the future as Love, the receivers, and tight ends grow together. In 2024 I wonder what the running backs will look like. I’m guessing they’ll be young with some growing pains. Gute needs to get that right so there is balance between run and pass. The threat of the run opens up the passing game.
Running back might be the easiest position to fill in the draft and land somebody ready to play right off the bat. Their biggest struggle isn't running, it's learning how to pass block.
I also don’t think there’s a true “#1” receiver on the roster. Watson is too limited functionally (and brittle), Reed is more of a “scheme him open” guy, and Doubs, Wicks and Heath aren’t athletically top tier. None are chum, either, so it’ll be interesting if they go for an “alpha”-type receiver or try to roll with balance.
KC is in a similar position (though with even less consistency) and getting mixed results.
@titmfatied posted:Jones and Nelson's damage amounted to 630 yds and 3 TDs combined. The biggest difference for 12's first year was Grant getting 1200 yds rushing.
The one caveat I'd add to your post would be Jones had a vg rookie campaign in 2007 and dropped off in 2008. Both he and Jordy did take a couple years to get it together. Both had issues with ball security and Nelson was seeing more time as return man.
Jennings was great in '07 and '08. Favre trusted him pretty quickly and the following year he and Rodgers had already developed their relationship, so he was a security blanket. As good as he was though, Gerg was never a true WR1 in the way most people define it.
Maybe the best thing this offense has in common with the early Rodgers years is that both are running the system that doesn't have to cater to the Davante's of the league. Love is starting to get a handle on finding the weak spots in the defense and distributing the ball as the progression dictates. There's little discrimination in terms of who happens to be running the route. Most every guy is showing the ability to make plays when given the chance, just like '08-'11.
It does suck that just down the road will be a point where people will want to get paid, but it's far more advantageous to have to make those decisions knowing you have a solid WR room that could handle someone leaving in free agency.
Jennings was a #1. He could beat defenders in ISO consistently and was reliable. He wasn't the best receiver in the league, but he was still top-notch for a few years. Chris Olave will likely turn into an even better version of him.
@Herschel posted:Jennings was a #1. He could beat defenders in ISO consistently and was reliable. He wasn't the best receiver in the league, but he was still top-notch for a few years. Chris Olave will likely turn into an even better version of him.
He was a #1 in terms of what he brought to the offense. He ran great routes and became dependable in big situations. But he wasn't the prototypical 1 in how most people define it. That guy is bigger and stronger than Jennings body type. Jennings was much shiftier and quick, but he never had the size or strength to go up in traffic routinely.
Either way, my point is Rodgers had such a stacked wr room that they didn't need to go out and find that one guy. I think the same of this crop of guys. Watson doesn't hold up to a ton of contact enough to be considered a WR1, but his presence within the scheme of the offense is definitely missed when he's not on the field and a component of other guys being free to make plays.
I think Wicks has the best chance to be a 1.
Watson has the most potential but won’t fulfill it because he is too twitchy he can’t stay healthy
Reeds ceiling is Eldeman
Doubs ceiling is Robert Brooks
I think it’s an outstanding young group. I see no need to add WR in the draft next year. Draft needs to be mainly hogs, some secondary, and a mid round pick to,replace Dillon.
To be cold hearted, Toure can go for a walk after this year. I'm all about keeping the feeder system going if the right guy is there in rounds 3-7. Can never have enough talent at WR. There's always injuries and becoming a great WR takes time. It sucked watching the WR room slowly degrade until 17 was the only real talent left.
Don’t think we’re that stacked at any one position yet. Draft has to include OL, DL, S, LB & RB to name a few. I look forward to see what this young team can become especially when healthy. A healthy Musgrave and Kraft should be good. A breakaway RB would help. Stability on the OL will be key too. Obviously, our new D coordinator has to be involved in the draft process. Barry’s gone after season ends. Just don’t think MLF wanted to make an in season change.
Rasheed has looked good the last few weeks. Offensive line may not be a troubling as one thought. Move Zach tom to center and find a new right tackle. Or move rasheed to right tackle and bring bachtiari back at a reworked contract.
Why “move Tom to Center and find a new RT” when you can leave Tom where he is (because he’s played well) and just get a new Center?
Because he may be an All-Pro Center vs. a decent RT. It's nice to have flexibility, but having guys in their best positions is advantageous.