I like the foundation he started. The Mental health space is very important and has been underrated as a problem for years.
Excellent!
Does anyone still seriously believe that Love won't get $50 million per (at a minimum)?
I'm guessing 5 years with $53mm-$55mm / yr and $80mm-$100mm guaranteed.
I think this deal will be very creative for both sides and heavily incentive laden.
I don't care what anyone says....as long as he doesn't get bored completing the easy pass, he's a better QB than Goff so he's probably going to make more than Goff's contract
Thankfully, Watson's contract turned out to be an anomaly, and teams didn't match/exceed those kind of numbers, but the market for first and second tier QBs has been steadily rising.
Of course, the Packers are counting on Love to be our Gen 3 QB, and there is some risk to commit to a long-term, huge-dollar contract based on 1 year of experience.
But I'm confident Love will be that man, and I like H5's guess of 5 years and an average of $52-$55M/year, but I'm guessing the guarantee will be even higher, maybe in the $120-$125M range.
It's not impossible to think Love could approach Goff's guarantee ($170M over 4 years) but that would mean low salary per year and no or low LTBE bonuses.
If it's possible to structure a contract that would work with the cap, I wouldn't mind. I just don't know how likely (or realistic) that may be.
The should font load the contract while a lot of the team is still under rookie deals. This not only would allow them the cap room to re-sign all those guys to 2nd contracts, but also give the Packers some flexibility if Love regresses for some reason.
Worst thing they could do is sign him to some long contract with a dead cap that inflates a ton down the road, hamstringing the org in the future.
For example, Goff's cap number in 2026 is $70 million. Cutting him would still give the Lions a dead cap of $65m. They do this so his cap number this year is only $27m. Lions basically have to win in the next 2 years before Goff alone takes up an entire quarter of their cap space.
Goal - to - go situations:
Among 31 qualifying QBs in goal-to-go situations last year, Jordan Love ranked:
- #1 in success rate (61%)
- #1 in EPA/att (+0.80)
- #1 in TD rate (61%)
- #1 in sack + INT rate (0%)
That seems pretty good for a 1st year starter 
Worth about $53mm / year.
Continue at that pace, and contract he's about to sign gets updated pdq.
I just don't understand the rush to give him a top of the market contract off the back half of last season. A contract extension should be about protecting the downside as much as securing the upside. I think Gute is wise to negotiate from a standpoint of 'this will take time' . Evaluation shouldn't stop after a stretch of good play, imo, particularly at the most consequential position on the roster.
There seemed to be an idea they'd sign him to a mega deal the first day they could
I'd rather pay 60 on the upside after he tears into the league halfway through this year than 53 locked in for 6 years right now and it ends up the DC's found a way to make his life on the field miserable and he struggles to overcome it.
Not to mention injury. It's not polite to think of, but both sides in the negotiations know it's a factor in coming to an agreement.
I also think it's interesting that MLF is seemingly nudging 10 for leadership this off season. I think part of the reason they were comfortable moving on from 33 was gauging how ready 10 is to be the lead dog. It's a different skill set to defer and learn then it is to be an example and drive everyone around you. Last year he needed to play, this year he needs to lead.
10 received permission to miss an optional practice today to go watch one of his girlfriend's volleyball matches.
Everything is a factor when it comes to a massive deal. In a negotiation it gets noticed. There's draft evaluation and there's negotiation evaluation. They have to figure a deal out with 10 one way or the other, may as well use the negotiations to learn some things about him instead of just giving him a dollar more that the last qb to sign a deal and hoping for the best.
@titmfatied posted:They have to figure a deal out with 10 one way or the other, may as well use the negotiations to learn some things about him instead of just giving him a dollar more that the last qb to sign a deal and hoping for the best.
Attachments
@titmfatied posted:I just don't understand the rush to give him a top of the market contract off the back half of last season.
I appreciate your post and your reticence on giving Love a deal right now.
You're not alone in that view
But I think you're forgetting something here. The Packers have had him in the building since April of 2020. They've had 4 years to watch him and find out what kind of a human he is under some of the most challenging circumstances possible.
Love persevered despite the years of Rodgers drama, the endless questions about when he would play. He was drafted in the 1st round and instead of coming into the team as the savior like most 1st round QBs, he was told to remain 2nd banana and sit quietly in the corner and learn. And he did
Love's 1st couple seasons were derailed by COVID, limiting his development and making it even harder on the kid. I could go on and on about all that he has endured and how he's handled it like a pro every. single. time.
They've had him on the field, running the scout team, running preseason games
They've had him in the meeting rooms, they've seen him leading. They've seen an entire season of Love under center
They've seen more than enough to know.
The final piece, was how would he handle adversity on the field. How would he react to the stench of Sept-Oct 2024 when both he and many of his young team mates were making so many mistakes ? He overcame all of that. He authored a playoff win on the road in his 1st NFL playoff game.
The Packers have seen all they need to see. Meanwhile your post echoes the sentiments of many fans saying " we've only seen 10 games of top play !" and need to see more.
The Packers see it completely opposite. Those 10 games of elite QB play were the final piece of the puzzle from their POV, not the 1st piece
He's the real deal in every way needed to lead a Championship team
Love will get a top deal and in 2 years it will be considered a smoking steal.
Go Packers
Yep. Same with Rodgers. He was tearing shit up on the scout team for a couple of years then he got the gig in 2008. Halfway into the season they knew what they saw in practice was what they were getting on the field.
Granted back then the QB contracts weren't the same % of the cap as they are now but it's the same deal. Love is the guy. They know it.
I sure hope you 2 are right. If the Pack is 5-4 or 4-5 at the bye week it won't be pretty as to what is coming out from fans and talking heads.
They'll be calling for the firing of yet another defensive coordinator.
There are two more hurdles Love needs to clear to remove almost all doubt.
Overcome the defensive adjustments teams are making this offseason. He did this on a shorter timescale last season when he scorched the league in the final third of the season. But DC's will have all offseason and a full slate of game tape to review to make better adjustments. I'm not greatly concerned about this since MLF + Love seems to be a very potent combo.
The other is coming through in the highest pressure situations. He did some of this during the regular season but also showed some of the same brain farts we saw vs SF with the game on the line in January. Which is one of the same knocks in his pre-draft analyses, FWIW. Not saying he's a big game choker, yet. But it's going to take coming through in situations like that to lead his team to another ring.
Have QB's not meeting the same criteria listed above gotten paid record setting money? Yup. I guess my contention isn't so much about justifying the new contract as it is about any "doubt" in how good he actually is or could be.
I don't know, Doc. I think he's got a bee in his bonnet today.
He's shown streaks of being elite. Now comes consistency and championships.
Just so Satori doesn't need another gummy, we're talking about a very high bar.
Not worried in the least...this will get done.
@DH13 posted:There are two more hurdles Love needs to clear to remove almost all doubt.
Overcome the defensive adjustments
coming through in the highest pressure situations.
The HOF is filled with QBs who didn't always clear those hurdles.
The Packers have two famous ones themselves and they filled this fanbase with any number of heinous moments where they didn't clear those hurdles...
despite being decade-long veterans
I reject your premise
And kindly ask you to stop moving the goalposts to infinity 
Love is the real deal right here, right now.
It. is. time. to accept and embrace that reality
Wooooooo !!!
Ease up on the edibles and the goal posts will stop moving. Cuz I ain't movin' em.
Yes, the same argument could be made about a lot of HOF QB's. Without checking all my notes, I believe nearly all of those QB's were also on SB winning teams. That's Love's next step. Of course it's not all on him but where could the Packers have gone without the last series in SF? With a better team around him, maybe we don't need to find that out?
The thing to remember about these contracts. Yes, they are in part rewarded based on past performance. But really they are based on what they expect the player to do over the next 3, 4 or 5 years.
Any big contract can blow up in your face, even if the player has been a stud for the past 3, 4 or 5 years. Or longer. Hi, Bakh.
@Dr._Bob posted:Not sure why you got a thumbs down on your post because it all seems reasonable to me. Love has already proven a lot to justify a hefty contract, but now we're asking just how elite he can be. Can he be elite?
You elitist SOB.
@PackerHawk posted:The thing to remember about these contracts. Yes, they are in part rewarded based on past performance. But really they are based on what they expect the player to do over the next 3, 4 or 5 years.
Any big contract can blow up in your face, even if the player has been a stud for the past 3, 4 or 5 years. Or longer. Hi, Bakh.
The same is true for every employee. You are paid commiserate with what you are going to do, not what you've done.
Russ Ball will come up with a contract that guarantees Love a tremendous amount of guaranteed money but will not hamstring the Packers after the first 3-4 years. Book it!
Hoping they use whatever is left on this years cap towards Love's new deal. Last time I checked they had over $20 million.
I would be overjoyed to see Love be the QB who compromises and says that championships are more important than being the highest paid QB, so I'll do that contract to spare cap space down the road.
And, when the down the road comes with at least one Owl, I'd be overjoyed again if Love said, Let's push my deal out so my cap hit is less and I can keep the team together.
Dreaming, I know, but a girl can dream...
Barring catastrophe, they are winning 11 games minimum.
from Warren Sharp, who was doing football analytics about a decade before the cool kids figgered it out
Jordan Love, from Week 11 on...
...despite being blitzed at the #1 highest rate in the NFL...
...on an incredible 41% of his dropbacks !
...despite being blitzed at the #1 highest rate in the NFL...
...on an incredible 41% of his dropbacks !
Ranked...
#1 in total TDs (20)
#1 in total passing yards (2,150)
#1 in EPA/att (+0.26) #1 in lowest sack + INT rate (4.1%)
#1 in TD:INT ratio (18:1) #2 in fewest INTs (1)
#2 in success rate (49%)
#2 in 1st down rate (38%)
#3 in completion rate (70.3%)
#3 in 3rd down conversion rate (49%)
Then the Love-led Packers went on the road and beat the shit out of the
number 9 defense in their house. Cowboys were on a 10 game home winning streak and were giving up only 20pts per game. The Love-led Packers dropped 48 on their asses ( 7 from Savage)
The following week, the Love-ed Packers went on the road again, this time against the number 4 defense, who was giving up only 18 pts per game.
And the Love-led Packers put up 21 pts.
Its both possible and highly likely that he will be even better this year.
Solid analysis of the talent Love has to work with.
.
Packers Wire with an article on Love and his "pocket presence" - one area that Jordan is working on this offseason
https://packerswire.usatoday.c...ment-this-offseason/
“There’s always little things,” Love said Tuesday. “The biggest thing for me was staying poised in the pocket, just staying balanced in the pocket. Sometimes I get out of whack with my feet and I might start drifting in the pocket a little too much. Just pocket awareness, making smaller moves, understanding when I might need to get out of there.”
“Just precision pocket movement, making smaller movements,” Love said.
@Satori posted:Then the Love-led Packers went on the road and beat the shit out of the
number 9 defense in their house. Cowboys were on a 10 game home winning streak and were giving up only 20pts per game. The Love-led Packers dropped 48 on their asses ( 7 from Savage)The following week, the Love-ed Packers went on the road again, this time against the number 4 defense, who was giving up only 18 pts per game.
And the Love-led Packers put up 21 pts.Its both possible and highly likely that he will be even better this year.
Could he not throw a horrible INT in the two-minute drill, please? 
@Satori posted:from Warren Sharp, who was doing football analytics about a decade before the cool kids figgered it out
Jordan Love, from Week 11 on...
...despite being blitzed at the #1 highest rate in the NFL...
...on an incredible 41% of his dropbacks !Ranked...#1 in total TDs (20)#1 in total passing yards (2,150)#1 in EPA/att (+0.26) #1 in lowest sack + INT rate (4.1%)#1 in TD:INT ratio (18:1) #2 in fewest INTs (1)#2 in success rate (49%)#2 in 1st down rate (38%)#3 in completion rate (70.3%)#3 in 3rd down conversion rate (49%)
That is why I thought he was the true NFL MVP in 2023. The Packers were all but dead, and then he performed like that and playoffs here we come. That the sportswriters are enamored of Lamar Jackson because of his running ability makes me ill. Lamar managed 24 TD passes all season, and here we have Love with 20 from week 11 on carrying the team.
Don't worry .... I like it when Pack is underrated.
The Pack does some of their best work when they're underdogs.
The slobbering will start when they win more.
Just don't get bored completing the easy pass.
Look who is #1 & #2. No surprise the 2 guys who use the offense as it's designed.
They'll never say it, but I guarantee the Niners would trade Purdy for Love straight up.
The goal-to-go stats from Love were spectacular last year-
But I didn't realize the historical nature of that accomplishment:
"In 2023, the Packers scored touchdowns on a staggering 95% of goal-to-go drives.
That not only ranked #1 in 2023 (the next closest team was 83%)
…but it ranked #1 for any team in goal-to-go database history !
(since 2000 via TruMedia)