Packers Off-season prediction/transactions thread

Fedya posted:

just once make a bold move..shell out some huge $$ for a FA(that isn't your own),

Julius Peppers and Jared Cook are chopped liver.

Those were "street" Free agents, because god forbid Ted lose out on a potential 7th round compensatory pick every year. And they weren't exactly "big money" signings. Big money to me is like what Bouye got, and what NE gave Gilmore. Oh wait...the Packers needed CB help. No I guess not, right ted because "We like our young guys, we think if they stay healthy they will keep developing into really good ballplayers".

Packy posted:

GreenNgoldBlood posted:

Still have no clue why Cook hasn't been re-signed yet. The longer it goes, the better chance he goes someplace else..nothing like pissing #12 off even more.

Why?  Because TT doesn't want to overpay.   It's day 1 of free agency.  Come on man!!!     Let Cook evaluate his options including who his QB will be.   

Cook is a decent TE, but most scouts have him as a middle of the pack kind of TE. He was great value last year, but he's brittle and played with a great QB for the first time last year. If someone wants to overpay him, let them. If he comes back for reasonable money (2 years in the 8 million range) great. 

The key will be not to run RichRod out there as a starter again. Either via the draft or another lower level FA, they have to get a TE that can threaten the middle of the defense. I would argue it wasn't Cook (he was a good TE, but not great), it was not having RichRod out there running at a speed that most DEs could cover him). 

LOL, unless you spend too much money on a player, they are no good.

So TT does sign free agents, just not the right kind of free agents.  Got you.

It's funny. If all anyone had seen of Cook was his work with AR he'd be long gone already. But other GMs have seen him with bad QBs. There is actual tape. And still there are GMs thinking of giving him a FA deal because he finally put it together last year. Those GMs sure as **** weren't asking for a visit on day one of free agency last year. 

It has to feel good to be asked for visits and feel wanted. He twisted on the vine a year ago with virtually no interest until Ted called. I think Cook is going to make his visits but won't lose sight of why he's wanted or what it's like to make the playoffs. Win a couple of them. And be a contributor in those wins. 

The signing bonus on the Perry deal seems really high and out of character for Thompson.  In year three the cap number for Perry is 14.7 million dollars, so if he has health problems he would become a decent candidate to be released.  But since the signing bonus is so high, if he gets released before the 2019 season it would translate into 11.1 million dollars of dead cap space for the Packers.  I'm surprised the Packers didn't keep the signing bonus in the 12 million range and guarantee Perry the remaining 6 million by designating the 2017 and 2018 base salaries and roster bonus as guaranteed money.  Perry gets the same amount of guaranteed money and the Packers protect themselves a bit more in the future.  Perry's agent was pretty smart to get this deal as it's very likely the Packers will not cut him through the first three seasons, which at minimum would make it a 3 year, 39 million dollar deal.

If the values reported are accurate the yearly cap numbers for Perry will be:

2017 = 6 million

2018 = 10.9 million (14.8 million in dead money if released before season)

2019 = 14.7 million (11.1 million in dead money if released before season)

2020 = 14.3 million (7.4 million in dead money if released before season)

2021 = 14.1 million (3.7 million in dead money if released before season)

Today the Texans lost a second round pick out of desperation because last year they blew their wad on Brock Osweiler.  Be careful of shiny free agents.

PackerJoe posted:

 

Re-sign:

OLB-Nick Perry – 5 years, 58 million, 20.5 million guaranteed, 6 million cap number in 2017

 

 

I may have overvalued Cook, but I was pretty close on Perry.  Numbers being reported right now are 5 years, 60 million, 18.5 million guaranteed, 6 million cap number in 2017.

Goalline posted:

Today the Texans lost a second round pick out of desperation because last year they blew their wad on Brock Osweiler.  Be careful of shiny free agents.

I don't watch basketball but was told earlier today that NBA trades like this are fairly common.  I don't remember an NFL trade like this one happening before today.

Osweiler is sub-Cutler.  Amazing that the Texans were that stupid and frankly losing the second round pick serves them right for being so stupid.

Now they should be more stupid and cut Jonathan Joseph so Thompson can sign him.

You really think TT would sign Joseph?

You don't bring Cook back..you are going to have MAJOR problems with #12. Remember Arodg said he "needs to be at or near the top of the list". Don't bring him back and try explaining that one to #12. "Well Aaron he was just too expensive" as Ted sits on $15 mil in cap space when he has that convo.

Does anybody here think they know 12% of what Ted Thompson knows about football?

Anybody?

Bueller?

Greengold bold?

Hyde's 6.1 average per year and Tretter's 5.58 average per year very likely both figure into the compensatory pick formula as fifth round picks.

Flipping bad contracts for picks is very common in basketball. Cleveland brought in Moneyball DePodesta to orchestrate deals like this. Everyone's going to have to figure out the real value of draft picks. Is $16 million for a second rounder stupid? Genius? Can Cleveland get another team to absorb some of that $16 million and flip Brock for another pick? 

Its pretty interesting that a lot of football people are trying to figure out what happened and if it's a good move. I'm sure Billy B and his double secret probation guru guy he hides offshore have been breaking that deal down for the past 6 hours. 

Blair Kiel posted:

Does anybody here think they know 12% of what Ted Thompson knows about football?

Anybody?

Bueller?

Greengold bold?

I'm pretty sure Bilicheck knows what he's dong, don't you?? Gave Gilmore $14/mill year. ted couldn't have done that for a major position of need?? So he has all this cap room(less the Perry deal), all high priced guys virtually signed now, even if you re-sign Cook and Lacy that's what?? MAYBE another 6 mill cap hit...so you have well over 25 mill left..and who to spend it on?? I mean why leave that much on the table?? You don't win an award for having that much cap room left..That's what i don't understand with Him.

What do you do for a living?

Why aren't you the Packers GM?

FTW pored through the record books (kidding; what are books?) and tallied up the number of regular season wins and playoff appearances over the past 10 years to determine which teams have been the most and least successful over the last decade. The best teams won’t be a surprise — hint, hint: (sound of deflation) — but there are plenty other surprises to be found in our list of 1 to 32.

1. New England Patriots — 122 wins (9 playoff appearances, 1st in AFC East)

2. Indianapolis Colts — 110 wins (9, 1st)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers — 101 wins (6, 1st)

4. Green Bay Packers — 98 wins (7, 1st)

5. San Diego Chargers — 97 wins (5, 1st)

PackerJoe posted:

On page 1 I had my prediction of what Thompson will do this off-season.

This post is how I’d approach the off-season if I was in Thompson’s chair.

Free agent signings:

CB-A.J. Bouye – 5 years, 65 million, 27.5 million guaranteed, 7.5 million cap number in 2017

12.5 million dollar signing bonus, 5 million base in 2017 (all guaranteed), 10 million base in 2018 (all guaranteed), 11 million base in 2019, 12.5 million base in 2020, 14 million base in 2021

 

 

Uh-oh.  Looks like I have been outbid.

Didn't miss too much on this contract either.

What's been reported on Bouye's deal with the Jaguars.

5 years, 67.5 million, 26 million guaranteed, 44 million in first three years

My offer.

5 years, 65 million, 27.5 million guaranteed, 38.5 million in first three years

My offer had an additional 1.5 million guaranteed, but since the Jaguar's deal had an additional 5.5 million rolled into the first three years it is very likely the better overall contract from the player's perspective.

Will have to re-do my off-season approach this weekend.

Blair Kiel posted:

Does anybody here think they know 12% of what Ted Thompson knows about football?

Anybody?

Bueller?

Greengold bold?

I could school him in beer drinking.

Blair Kiel posted:

What do you do for a living?

Why aren't you the Packers GM?

Believe me, I wish I was...things would look  A LOT different at 1265 as far as personnel after today I will tell you that. There'd be players I signed that would have gotten ANYONE excited about the direction of the team. Specifically the defense.

No delusions of grandeur then, am I right?

I'm a salesman.

I stick to that.

GMing is easy. All you do is draft Aaron Rodgers and scan the wire for players you've heard of. 

So everyone here is comfortable starting the year with the same secondary(minus Hyde now), and probably two drafted rookies at CB??  Great, glad you are all satisfied with it. Don't give me signing Davon House either...that really does nothing to improve it.

It's March 9th, brother.

Eddie Lacy to visit Queens

GreenNgoldBlood posted:

So everyone here is comfortable starting the year with the same secondary(minus Hyde now), and probably two drafted rookies at CB??  Great, glad you are all satisfied with it. Don't give me signing Davon House either...that really does nothing to improve it.

Poopy diaper check.  It's the first day of FA for **** sakes. 

Gonna be a long, painful off-season...followed by a surely long, painful season...

Blair Kiel posted:

It's March 9th, brother.

Right, and all the stud corners in FA are essentially gone already...amazing that teams that had problems in the secondary, realized it, stepped up and spent the $$ to try to fix it. Ted must not think it's a problem.

Henry posted:

GreenNgoldBlood posted:

So everyone here is comfortable starting the year with the same secondary(minus Hyde now), and probably two drafted rookies at CB??  Great, glad you are all satisfied with it. Don't give me signing Davon House either...that really does nothing to improve it.

Poopy diaper check.  It's the first day of FA for **** sakes. 

And how many stud corners are left in FA?? Or does Ted not think the secondary is a problem?? Interesting that teams with secondary problems realized it(except for one obviously), and got aggressive, spent some money and fixed the problem. See how that works?? Hell, even Billicheck stepped up and spent a boatload of cash on a player that wasn't his own.  I know everyone here will jizz in their pants when Davon House comes back, thinking that will fix it..and he was CHEAP so= good signing. At least to most here. I just don't get why it matters so much...it's not YOUR $$ they'd be spending.

GreenNgoldBlood posted:

Blair Kiel posted:

It's March 9th, brother.

Right, and all the stud corners (all the guys I've heard of) in FA are essentially gone already (DO SOMETHING....ANYTHING!!!..).amazing that teams that had problems in the secondary, realized it, stepped up and spent the $$ to try to fix it. Ted must not think it's a problem. (Or, I'm a fan, WTF do I know?)

So you think Randall and Rollins careers are over?  Complete failures?  Can't be redeemed or bounce back especially after a season of injuries?

Look. If Ted didn't lock up in a day one FA bidding war in 2006 and wildly overpay for Charles Woodson he may have ended up in Tampa. You have to go huge day one. It's like Ted forgot how FA works. 

2 of the top 5 FA signings of all time were Packers. That ain't bad. 

It's hilarious how Capt Schitty Britches is making this personal.  Yeah Kiel it's not YOUR money. 

you ever topped off a bud light on the rocks with fresh lemon juice?

Mike McCarthy likes vodka rocks with fresh lemon juice. I'm going to repeat this many times. 

Fresh lemon juice 

Henry posted:

So you think Randall and Rollins careers are over?  Complete failures?  Can't be redeemed or bounce back especially after a season of injuries?

You sound just like Ted!! Not saying that, but what if they don't and the secondary is a disaster again?? Wouldn't it be nice to have at least ONE guy back there you are pretty certain you can count on(Like Shields was when he was healthy)?? That way if Randall and Rollins do bounce back, it's just all that much better. It's hedging your bet.

GreenGoldBlood is a mix of squirrelpee, VG, TLC, and a bunch of others on the anti TT deez nuts tip 

well played 

He's that putz in the "we want Brent" pic with the jorts and colored socks 

"Win the free agency Super Bowl" ****ing a that's stoopid ****