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Henry posted:
YATittle posted:

Love Ben Fennell. Wish he was on the Packers staff.

Cramming stats into tweets doesn't make you a coaching candidate.

No BUT is there anyone on staff working analytics the way the Rams do and most baseball teams? For example the Eagles found that the Rams were exceedingly vulnerable to runs out of the shotgun formation. Scored three TDs that way.

Last edited by YATittle
ChilliJon posted:

GB made a huge push for Mack. Didn’t get him. GB made a great offer to Kyle Fuller. Bears matched it. 

Would not surprise me one bit if Gute went after Landon Collins and Chandler Jones early in FA and then go offense early and often in the draft. 

This OL has to be much better in 2019. Enough of this scraping by BS. 

The OL has to be the focus. Especially if you are in the same division as the Bears and Vikings.

Here's the Packer OL draft picks recently:

2018 - Madison (5th round - didn't report)

2017 - 0

2016-  Spriggs (2), Kyle Murphy (6th round)

2015 - 0

2014- Linsley (4th round)

They completely whiffed on the Spriggs pick. Besides that, one 6th round pick in the last 4 drafts is ridiculous. 3 total picks in the last 5 drafts isn't enough either.

They spent so much draft capital trying to find someone who could play DB the last 5 years, they missed out on OL.

Defensive backs chosen:

2018 - Alexander (1), Jackson (2)

2017- King (2), Josh Jones (2)

2016- 0

2015 - Randall (1), Rollins (2)

2014 - Dix (1), Goodson (6)

In the last 5 years, they've used 3 first round and 4 second round picks on DBs. It looks like one of them is a potential star (Alexander) and Jackson may be OK. It's not just that those other guys have contributed next to nothing, it's the guys they didn't draft at other positions that have now crumbled.

The 1st to 3rd round picks are supposed to be your future stars and Pro Bowlers. TT's last 3 drafts produced one guy like that  - Kenny Clark. Fackrell may be OK. King can't stay healthy - just like in college. We'd have been better off with UDFAs relative to the other 6 guys.

2017 - King, Josh Jones, Adams

2016 - Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell

2015- Randall, Rollins, Montgomery

And a bunch of the talking heads can't understand why the Packers have declined so fast?

 

 

 

 

The OL stuff is really the key. Look at the Saints. Everyone talks about how great Brees and Kimara are, but look at what they've invested in the OL.

Their starters are two of their own 1st round picks (Ramcyzk and Andrus Peat), their own 3rd round pick (Armsted), a guy they traded Jimmy Graham straight up for back when Graham was good (Max Unger), a guard they gave a FA contract of 4 years and 34 million to (Warford).

Brees looked like he was declining a couple of years ago and now that he has this line, he looks like a Pro Bowler again. It's not a coincidence.

Last edited by MichiganPacker

Kofi Amichia doesn't count?  (I kid, I kid).

TT was money with 4th round OL picks.  I don't know why he didn't keep at it after 2014, although I understand the talent has to be there.  The Pack is paying the price today for no/poor investment there.

And to MP's point, overall, the continued misses in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft leave the mess of roster you see today.

YATittle posted:
Henry posted:
YATittle posted:

Love Ben Fennell. Wish he was on the Packers staff.

Cramming stats into tweets doesn't make you a coaching candidate.

No BUT is there anyone on staff working analytics the way the Rams do and most baseball teams? For example the Eagles found that the Rams were exceedingly vulnerable to runs out of the shotgun formation. Scored three TDs that way.

That's all McVince did.  He relied on analytics and every other "self scouting" bullshit.  Play the game.

Henry posted:
YATittle posted:
Henry posted:
YATittle posted:

Love Ben Fennell. Wish he was on the Packers staff.

Cramming stats into tweets doesn't make you a coaching candidate.

No BUT is there anyone on staff working analytics the way the Rams do and most baseball teams? For example the Eagles found that the Rams were exceedingly vulnerable to runs out of the shotgun formation. Scored three TDs that way.

That's all McVince did.  He relied on analytics and every other "self scouting" bullshit.  Play the game.

Not true. "We do what we do." That's what he did.

No, true.  Remember GPS to track injuries for starters?  McVince was awash in analytics and when the message gets stale it doesn't mean shit.  There isn't a team in the league not trying to moneyball the shit out of every single minute of the NFL calendar.  

Let's also realize Ben does the same stupid shit we do when pointing to a still and complaining a guy is wide open even though split second action and 15 other different things happening on the field is influencing the outcome.  Like some receiver is sitting there doing jumping jacks in the middle of the field for two minutes.  

Plenty of armchair stats weinies.  Thanks for the input Ben, usually a great perspective but having the hot take does not make for coaching.

Last edited by Henry
MichiganPacker posted:

The OL stuff is really the key. Look at the Saints. Everyone talks about how great Brees and Kimara are, but look at what they've invested in the OL.

Their starters are two of their own 1st round picks (Ramcyzk and Andrus Peat), their own 3rd round pick (Armsted), a guy they traded Jimmy Graham straight up for back when Graham was good (Max Unger), a guard they gave a FA contract of 4 years and 34 million to (Warford).

Brees looked like he was declining a couple of years ago and now that he has this line, he looks like a Pro Bowler again. It's not a coincidence.

The entire right side of the line and all "depth" can pretty much be flushed on this team.  There is zero reason to keep UDFA scrubs and hope to develop when guys like McCray are supposed to be your starters.  They have 3 olinemen right now.  3.

Cheezers posted:

Draft order after yesterday's games:

1. Cardinals (3-11) 
2. Raiders (3-11) 
3. Jets (4-10) 
4. 49ers (4-10) 
5. Jaguars (4-10) 
6. Falcons (5-9) 
7. Lions (5-9) 
8. Giants (5-9) 
9. Buccaneers (5-9) 
10. Bills (5-9) 
11. Packers (5-8-1) 

Would be nice to leapfrog most of those 5-9 teams and get in the top 7 or 8.  

How disappointing has this season been?  The Pack has played 5 games YTD against the 10 worst teams and only has a 3-2 record in those games.  The last two games are against two of these top 10 worst teams.  Seven games against the dregs of the league and will end up with an overall losing record.  Hugely missed opportunity.

We've seen enough from Spriggs. He's not worth a roster spot at this point.
McCray, Patrick, Murphy, Pankey, Light, and the PS guys are all borderline. None of them should be starters at this point, but we should be able to develop some solid depth from at least a couple of them. 
I hope at least one of our first round picks is for T. Get another on day 2.
To my eyes, it looks like slim pickin's for FA OTs. Is there somebody I'm missing?
Is there anyone from teams that are going to be against their cap next year worth trading for?

I'm probably more confident in our current WRs than some (most?) may be, but I do think MVS is the real deal, and that Kumerow may leave St Brown and Moore in his dust. Ditto for Allison; although I concerned about his injury history, he plays well from healthy.
St Brown and Moore need to learn how to gun/return punts and KOs for their best chance to stay and produce. 
In any case, I don't see WR as a high priority for the draft.

I think we can make something work with the TEs we have right now not named Graham, but Kendricks and Lewis are borderline. I don't think the Packers can afford to jettison all that experience at once and expect to replace it in the same year, so I hope there is at least one candidate available on Day 2.

Can't ever have enough RBs, so I'll look for another one in later rounds or UDFA.

I'm just as confident with our guys that play on the DL right now, and am particularly impressed with Lowery and surprised at Lancaster. If there is someone available that is too good to pass up, I could understanding picking one that high. but I'm really hoping there will be an OLB/Edge that we could get before having to make that choice.

LBs are like RBs. Again, I hope for a pick there before DL, as an example, but I'd get as many as possible on Day 2.

Use one pick; maybe one of the first-rounders, for CB or S. We've got a core of good players, but we need to move on from Tramon, and get the guys we do have playing their natural positions. 

Music City posted:

I don’t think Rodgers is even tradeable. His contract pretty much ends that discussion. 

One impact player on the OL changes everything. It aligns the depth, it makes the team more capable of sustaining productivity in the event of injury... it’s all they need. And I am less concerned with the OT position as I am inside. Upgrade the Gs and you give the Ts a chance to survive. So draft and FA- get new OGs. 

Then pass rush. 

But I am not down on the WRs at all. Give these guys another offseason. This group could be great. 

And I’m with Boris- make a run at a veteran S. Earl Thomas if he can still run. Draft one to develop. 

OL, S, pass rush in the draft. 

In 2 or 3 years it won't look like a huge contract.   The cap continues to rise and other QBs will be topping it.   It's the way it always goes.

Timmy! posted:


Use one pick; maybe one of the first-rounders, for CB or S. We've got a core of good players, but we need to move on from Tramon, and get the guys we do have playing their natural positions. 

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.  

They need to actually go sign a FA that's proven on some level.  It has been an absolute blackhole of draft picks.  No, no, no, no, no.

And if we're honest, the Packers have Daniels, Clark and Alexander as the "core".  That's it.  Martinez is solidly consistent.  If it isn't Oline, build the front seven.  

Last edited by Henry

We need to draft O Line and draft it often. What if Gute moved up the board last year to grab Quentin Nelson, OG, and then used another move to grab Mike McGlinchey, OT? We would not be talking O Line problems today and would have gotten more production from our running game, all while giving ARod the protection he needed on pass plays. Jaire was a great pick for us, but the bigger need, IMO, was on the O Line. I'll give Josh Jackson another year to show he was worth that 2nd pick. Our immediate problem is O Line. We need to protect Rodgers and open holes for our RBs.

Timmy! posted:

A side question for this discussion:
What has happened to the S/LB hybrid position? It was all the rage and talk last year heading into this year, and I haven't heard/read another word about since.
Not just the Packers but league-wide.
Thoughts?

I think that initial excitement over that "hybrid" position fad was due to 1) seeing Kam Chancellor dominate in that kind of role and 2) college teams not putting out true FS's anymore. I think the rise and now prevalence of the spread, RPO's, and the air raid are forcing college teams to put any player that can remotely cover at CB which means the only Safeties we're seeing in college are classic in-the-box SS's. Most of them don't translate well to the NFL because you have to be able to cover as an NFL Safety, so when teams saw a classic example of this player, Kam Chancellor, excel at a role where he was more 50/50 LB/SS, that seemed like the blueprint for utilizing these players. Unfortunately Kam Chancellor was a unique player who excelled because of his size, athleticism, and awareness. Also he had a potentially (IMO) HOF FS (Earl Thomas) dominating on the back end and an all-time great front 7 in front of him. I think teams figured out quickly that the "hybrid" position only works with the right player, you can't just stick a big Safety at LB and think he's going to be great. 

The NFL game may be evolving, but the basics of what you need are always going to be true: you need a franchise QB, two Tackles, a pass rusher, a MLB, a CB, and FS who can cover. Who can get away with role players everywhere else, but you're always going to need quality players at those positions. 

. Most of them don't translate well to the NFL because you have to be able to cover as an NFL Safety, so when teams saw a classic example of this player, Kam Chancellor, excel at a role where he was more 50/50 LB/SS, that seemed like the blueprint for utilizing these players. Unfortunately Kam Chancellor was a unique player who excelled because of his size, athleticism, and awareness. Also he had a potentially (IMO) HOF FS (Earl Thomas) dominating on the back end and an all-time great front 7 in front of him. I think teams figured out quickly that the "hybrid" position only works with the right player, you can't just stick a big Safety at LB and think he's going to be great. 

 

Kam Chancellor ran a 4.7 40 coming out. Richard Sherman ran a 4.56 40 coming out.

Earl Thomas reportedly ran a 4.37 at his pro day.

https://www.thephinsider.com/2...runs-well-at-pro-day

Without Earl Thomas, Chancellor wouldn't have amounted to much of anything. Without Earl Thomas, Sherman would still have been a good corner, but he wouldn't be looking at the Hall of Fame like he is now.

Earl Thomas made that defense. Just like Nick Collins was critical to the Packers Super Bowl defense. Nick Collins also ran a 40 in the high 4.3s.

Having a safety that can run and cover up other guy's mistakes is what often makes a great defense.

Ha Ha Clinton Dix ran a 4.58 coming out.

 

MichiganPacker posted:
. Most of them don't translate well to the NFL because you have to be able to cover as an NFL Safety, so when teams saw a classic example of this player, Kam Chancellor, excel at a role where he was more 50/50 LB/SS, that seemed like the blueprint for utilizing these players. Unfortunately Kam Chancellor was a unique player who excelled because of his size, athleticism, and awareness. Also he had a potentially (IMO) HOF FS (Earl Thomas) dominating on the back end and an all-time great front 7 in front of him. I think teams figured out quickly that the "hybrid" position only works with the right player, you can't just stick a big Safety at LB and think he's going to be great. 

 

Kam Chancellor ran a 4.7 40 coming out. Richard Sherman ran a 4.56 40 coming out.

Earl Thomas reportedly ran a 4.37 at his pro day.

https://www.thephinsider.com/2...runs-well-at-pro-day

Without Earl Thomas, Chancellor wouldn't have amounted to much of anything. Without Earl Thomas, Sherman would still have been a good corner, but he wouldn't be looking at the Hall of Fame like he is now.

Earl Thomas made that defense. Just like Nick Collins was critical to the Packers Super Bowl defense. Nick Collins also ran a 40 in the high 4.3s.

Having a safety that can run and cover up other guy's mistakes is what often makes a great defense.

Ha Ha Clinton Dix ran a 4.58 coming out.

 

4.58 but he quit at 30 yards

mrtundra posted:

We need to draft O Line and draft it often. What if Gute moved up the board last year to grab Quentin Nelson, OG, and then used another move to grab Mike McGlinchey, OT? We would not be talking O Line problems today and would have gotten more production from our running game, all while giving ARod the protection he needed on pass plays. Jaire was a great pick for us, but the bigger need, IMO, was on the O Line. I'll give Josh Jackson another year to show he was worth that 2nd pick. Our immediate problem is O Line. We need to protect Rodgers and open holes for our RBs.

I am also all in for drafting OL early and very often if they have to.  John Madden (and others) have said you start building your team on the OL and work your way out.  I think if they can get a good RT and RG you will see this offense take off.  Give Aaron the consistent time he needs and he will get back to normal.  

It also will help the defense because if you have a consistent offense it won't put them on the field all the time.  

As for the trading Aaron idea guys that just isn't going to happen or do I think it needs to.

DH13 posted:

Which brings us to the follow up: "what is the deal with Oren Burks"?

I think he's playing but I haven't heard one mention of him since the early season buzz of whether or not he was going to be back from injury to start seeing action.

Is he just looking like another whiff or is he just not a key in Pettine's D?

Morrison seemed to be playing a lot and he wasn't bad.  Still, it would make sense the guy you drafted to play coverage LB to be playing obvious passing downs.  Not sure if it was Pettine flooding the field with DBs or Morrison and Martinez backing up a beat up Dline was more important but his damn near complete disappearance is troubling.

Last edited by Henry

Heard on the innerwebs this AM:

If the Packers lose out their 2 remaining games and the Jets and 49ers also win out, the Packers could  be picking as high as 3rd overall. They currently sit at 11. 

It would obviously take some help from other teams losing, but a 3rd overall pick should mean an instant difference maker if Gutenheimer gets the pick right.

Hey, I can dream a little... 

Last edited by packerboi

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