What else are we going to do this time of year? Sit around complaining about stupid posts?
@FLPACKER posted:I see Corum as a product of a superior UM offensive line.
We'll see what his 40 time looks like. If he's a low 4.4 guy he'll be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. If he's in the 4.5s, he's a 4-5th rounder.
posted:
I see the annual X4 draft expert round table is starting to rev up.
Indeed
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The moment I retired.
Now I just do consulting work on the internet.
@Fandame posted:Classic tweener. Deguara isn't really big or strong or fast enough to make a really good TE, and he's not strong enough or explosive enough to make a good fullback (which nobody uses anyway). SF has Juszczyk who's the same size as Deguara at FB, but he's a lot more explosive and remembers to block. I think MLF wanted Deguara to be the Jusz of GB, but he never grabbed onto the role. Deguara hasn't shown that he can play at a high level consistently; in fact, most of us would settle for Deguara playing at an average level most of the time.
DeGuara was a 6th or 7th round pick that got drafted way too high. We'd look at him completely differently if he was a 7th rounder or even an UDFA (where you can find a lot of guys just like him every year).
@Pakrz posted:The moment I retired.
Now I just do consulting work on the internet.
Somewhere on this planet Jamal Reynolds is looking for ways to prove me right.
@Eddie posted:I don't understand why Dillion shouldn't be the FB/H-Back instead of Deguara? Dillon is 10 pounds heaver, at least as good of a pass protector/blocker, is a threat to run the ball and has almost twice the receptions and yards.
Its a fair question - and one reason why that doesn't work as well is that Dillon's best trait is north- south and going forward, while the H back needs to go side to side and have decent change of direction.
Blocking in space in the MLF offense is a lot harder than most fans imagine and that's why you see Deguara moved all over the place and often offset behind the OT - to give him the leverage he needs to complete the block.
That's just not Dillon's game and that's also why GB doesn't just employ a meathead FB who can blow people out of the hole. Gotta have movement skills. Earlier, I linked an interview with Kyle Shanahan talking about why he places such a high value on the FB role, but I can't remember which thread its in.
AJ Dillon is a power back and the best place to line him up is deep behind the QB, while the H back gets moved around the formation like a chess piece. Utilizing Dillon was a challenge for Rodgers because AR wanted to be in shotgun all the time, and that takes away Dillon's ability to build up speed before he gets to LOS. This season, we've seen more of Love under center and its proven effective
As far as offensive potency with Dillon vs Aaron Jones, Jones is the vastly superior RB & playmaker - but Dillon's presence brings a different flavor to the offense and forces the defense to adapt.
When the Packers hosted the SB Champion Chiefs - Aaron Jones was inactive. And yet the Packers offense with Dillon scored more points vs Spags' top ranked defense than any other team in 2023, including playoffs. Dillon's value to the offense is as RB2, not FB/H-back.
The Deguara role also requires a player who can be a core STs guy and that's more RB3 or FB/H-back than RB2; you're not gonna want RB2 risking injury on STs. Deguara had 220 snaps on STs, Dillon only 24.
Good news for all of the Deguara-haters though - as it seems Josiah is being phased out with the addition of Kraft/Musgrave/Sims taking on some of his blocking duties on offense. Not sure who will replace him on STs
As far as the power back role, I think that's a greater draft need this year than HB given the Packers stated commitment to Aaron Jones for '24 (and maybe '25)
@Pakrz posted:The moment I retired.
Now I just do consulting work on the internet.
Long overdue
@Satori posted:As far as the power back role, I think that's a greater draft need this year than HB given the Packers stated commitment to Aaron Jones for '24 (and maybe '25)
Braille-0n Allen would maybe fit that gig. Interesting the Packers don’t seem to draft a lot of Sconnie Boys. Most of the time for good reason, however, Buckley over Troy Vincent. Kevin Queen over VaTJ Not good
Thankfully pass on “the great” Erasmus James types.
@Satori posted:Good news for all of the Deguara-haters though - as it seems Josiah is being phased out with the addition of Kraft/Musgrave/Sims taking on some of his blocking duties on offense. Not sure who will replace him on STs
As far as the power back role, I think that's a greater draft need this year than HB given the Packers stated commitment to Aaron Jones for '24 (and maybe '25)
No matter how hard GB commits to Jones, it won't prevent him from father time/injury. That seems to be the common reason people think Gute needs to find another HB.
I love Jones but I agree. Last season he couldn't stay healthy, and I fear relying on him to make our offense work is too risky.
@DH13 posted:No matter how hard GB commits to Jones, it won't prevent him from father time/injury. That seems to be the common reason people think Gute needs to find another HB.
Absolutely !
I just don't think GB will spend a high pick on a Jones' replacement THIS year given Gute's recent comments.
5th - 6th rounder ? Sure
Maybe they find a Jones 2.0 and maybe they think Emanuel Wilson has upside.
@MichiganPacker posted:DeGuara was a 6th or 7th round pick that got drafted way too high.
Actually DeGuara was going to get drafted in the 5th round by SF. Gutey had traded away his 4th and the 5th they had was after SF picks so he over-drafted him in the late 3rd.
In case you forgot SF drafted Kittle in The 5th round.
@Boris posted:Actually DeGuara was going to get drafted in the 5th round by SF. Gutey had traded away his 4th and the 5th they had was after SF picks so he over-drafted him in the late 3rd.
In case you forgot SF drafted Kittle in The 5th round.
Right rounds but wrong years. Kittle was drafted in 2017 and DeGuara in 2020.
Or did you mean Kittle in the 5th in general Boris?
@Maxi54 posted:did you mean Kittle in the 5th in general Boris?
Correct. Their modus operandi...yes previous season but 5th round.
The Packers in 2017 had 2 selections in round 4. They took the immortal Vince Beigel to open the round then Jamaal Williams later in round 4.
SF took Kittle with 2nd overall in round 5.
I know many of you LOVE college football, but as I start to dive into these college QBs, it’s hard for me to even watch: very few play on schedule, the pass concepts are a mess most of the time, they run the same play over & over, a million bubble screens, can’t find many…
— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) February 23, 2024
I doubt many (if any) would agree with me, but the above quote is one of the many reasons why I don't think I would ever take a QB with a Top 5/Top 10 pick unless I knew the pick was going to sit for a few years and learn. And even then I'd be wary. It's not uncommon for "generational talents" at the college QB position to not pan out. For every Andrew Luck/Payton Manning, there are dozens of Bakers, Kylers, Russels, etc. If you hit on the pick, you're set up for a long time. But if you miss, you (presumable) rebuild misses, and you're rebuilding again in a few years. I think the odds are that you'll end up with a decent QB at best, and more likely a QB that underwhelms or is a bust.
@BrainDed posted:I’ll go on record an say I want the kid from Iowa as long as the intent is safety. I was dead wrong about Jackson, but I’m going for it again.
Ready to be hurt again ?
We have professionals who can make that happen
@Boris posted:Deguara was 8.66?!?!? He plays more like 1.66
Nah, a 6.66.
@PackLandVA posted:I doubt many (if any) would agree with me, but the above quote is one of the many reasons why I don't think I would ever take a QB with a Top 5/Top 10 pick unless I knew the pick was going to sit for a few years and learn. And even then I'd be wary. It's not uncommon for "generational talents" at the college QB position to not pan out. For every Andrew Luck/Payton Manning, there are dozens of Bakers, Kylers, Russels, etc. If you hit on the pick, you're set up for a long time. But if you miss, you (presumable) rebuild misses, and you're rebuilding again in a few years. I think the odds are that you'll end up with a decent QB at best, and more likely a QB that underwhelms or is a bust.
I agree with the concept that almost any young WB is better sitting for a year or two before becoming a full time NFL starter. Mahomes sat for a year and was probably better for it (although it is a luxury to have a guy even as good as Alex Smith was to reduce the pressure of having the rookie QB getting thrown into the fire early).
The problem is related to the looming massive contract extension they are going to get if they are even a slightly above average QB. The biggest advantage of having a good, young QB is that you have tens of millions of dollars of extra cap space to work with to build the roster. Every year the young QB sits is giving up a year of that window. Love is probably going to get 40 million a year (at least). I would guess the original plan was to have Love as the starter no later than 2022, but COVID and the Rodgers situation pushed that back a year.
Where Love was picked in the draft is the ideal place to get your rookie QB though. If you are drafted first overall, you get about 41 million over your first four years. If you are drafted 26th overall (where Love was) you get 14 million over 4 years. Either way, as a first round pick you get to extend the player for about 20-22 million for a 5th year.
The Niners situation is really good with Purdy having a minimum contract, but they can't automatically extend him for a 5th year. That's only applicable to first round picks.
So, the best situation is to draft a QB at the end of the first round, have him sit for a year, and then get the rookie contract for three years as a starter and then they 20 million extension for a year.
The worst place to draft a QB is the start of the second round since they get a similar salary to the late first round picks, but you lose that extension year. The teams realize this obviously since in the last 7 drafts, there have been 23 first round QBs and 3 second round QBs. Hurts being a second round pick cost the Eagles another year of cheaper QBing since they had to extend him last year instead of getting that extra year, which probably contributed to their decline this year when they had to pay him 50 million. Love was in the same class and even after sitting him for three years, the Packers will get 2 years of cheaper good QB play as opposed to the Eagles getting three from Hurts before the big money kicked in.
@MichiganPacker posted:I agree with the concept that almost any young WB is better sitting for a year or two before becoming a full time NFL starter. Mahomes sat for a year and was probably better for it (although it is a luxury to have a guy even as good as Alex Smith was to reduce the pressure of having the rookie QB getting thrown into the fire early).
The problem is related to the looming massive contract extension they are going to get if they are even a slightly above average QB. The biggest advantage of having a good, young QB is that you have tens of millions of dollars of extra cap space to work with to build the roster. Every year the young QB sits is giving up a year of that window. Love is probably going to get 40 million a year (at least). I would guess the original plan was to have Love as the starter no later than 2022, but COVID and the Rodgers situation pushed that back a year.
Where Love was picked in the draft is the ideal place to get your rookie QB though. If you are drafted first overall, you get about 41 million over your first four years. If you are drafted 26th overall (where Love was) you get 14 million over 4 years. Either way, as a first round pick you get to extend the player for about 20-22 million for a 5th year.
The Niners situation is really good with Purdy having a minimum contract, but they can't automatically extend him for a 5th year. That's only applicable to first round picks.
So, the best situation is to draft a QB at the end of the first round, have him sit for a year, and then get the rookie contract for three years as a starter and then they 20 million extension for a year.
The worst place to draft a QB is the start of the second round since they get a similar salary to the late first round picks, but you lose that extension year. The teams realize this obviously since in the last 7 drafts, there have been 23 first round QBs and 3 second round QBs. Hurts being a second round pick cost the Eagles another year of cheaper QBing since they had to extend him last year instead of getting that extra year, which probably contributed to their decline this year when they had to pay him 50 million. Love was in the same class and even after sitting him for three years, the Packers will get 2 years of cheaper good QB play as opposed to the Eagles getting three from Hurts before the big money kicked in.
Man, you should start a blog. Love the way you write.👍🏽
@PackLandVA posted:For every Andrew Luck/Payton Manning, there are dozens of Bakers, Kylers, Russels, etc.
True story....2007, I'm standing in line to get into the NFL Draft in NY. First draft I ever attended live. A few Raiders fans standing by me....word for word, I told them...."Calvin Johnson is the best player in this draft...PERIOD. It isn't even close....if the Raiders draft Jamarcus Russel it will haunt them for at least a decade. No matter who drafts him....he's a bust"
Fast forward to 2024.....and here we are.
@Boris posted:True story....2007, I'm standing in line to get into the NFL Draft in NY. First draft I ever attended live. A few Raiders fans standing by me....word for word, I told them...."Calvin Johnson is the best player in this draft...PERIOD. It isn't even close....if the Raiders draft Jamarcus Russel it will haunt them for at least a decade. No matter who drafts him....he's a bust"
Fast forward to 2024.....and here we are.
(mimicking the Colin Cowherd show) When Boris was Right!!!!!!! and When Boris was wrong.......
@MichiganPacker posted:So, the best situation is to draft a QB at the end of the first round, have him sit for a year, and then get the rookie contract for three years as a starter and then they 20 million extension for a year.
Great point....which is exactly why the Ravens traded up to get pick #32 and draft Lamar in the first round.
@Floridarob posted:(mimicking the Colin Cowherd show) When Boris was Right!!!!!!! and When Boris was wrong.......
100% right in 2007....I still think I'm right about Joe Barry never getting another DC job
Newton falling to 41 would be such a shame https://t.co/vodRQxVDl6
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) February 23, 2024
@Boris posted:Actually DeGuara was going to get drafted in the 5th round by SF. Gutey had traded away his 4th and the 5th they had was after SF picks so he over-drafted him in the late 3rd.
Interesting. Where did you hear about this? Too bad SF didn't nab him first 
He read it.
First he wrote it down. Then he read it.
Will be interesting if they draft a couple of the new DC college guys. He would know them well and both in areas GBP could use some help.
Christian Mahogany G
Elijah Jones CB
DeJean reportedly will not work out at the combine. Something to do with a very late season injury, leg or foot I think. Will attend for interviews and medicals. But should be able to work out for teams sometime before the draft.
@Iowacheese posted:Will be interesting if they draft a couple of the new DC college guys. He would know them well and both in areas GBP could use some help.
There were a few articles written about Slippery Pete Carroll and how he knew the college kids really well when he made the leap to NFL with Seattle.
They had a couple of fantastic drafts, especially in late rounders. Then as time passed, Pete didn't "know" the next batch coming out quite as well and then seahawks draft magic dried up.
Hoping Hafley can shine some light on BC kids and others from the conference.
Pete Carroll never saw a Pac 12 player that he didn't like that he could draft or sign as a FA. In his 1st or 2nd year I think something 50% of his team were Pac 12 players.
I will say two months before the actual Draft that Gute will either move up into the Top 15, maybe Top 20 or will move back into Round 2 for a later pick plus a #1 next year.
That works, especially that #1 next year.
He has to do some moving around because all these picks won't be making the team.
Here's the Packers' rookie pool numbers from OTC and you can click on any draft slot and it shows the estimated pay for that pick.
IF the Packers pick at # 25, that lucky player will become a Green Bay Packer and they get $15.6M guaranteed and $8.2M immediately in the form of a signing bonus.
Not a bad start to an NFL career