@YooperPackfan posted:Donβt get me wrong, I still hope we get him but it never really works out for us
Reggie White, Ryan Pickett, Charles Woodson, Julius Peppers, Santana Dotson, Eugene Robinson, and Sean Jones were free agents that received contracts that were well above the minimum and worked out well over the years. Z. Smith has obviously been great and P. Smith and Amos have not been bad.
Joe Johnson was the big one on defense that didn't work out. He got 6 years and 33 million back in 2002 with about 7 million guaranteed. If you are arguing against signing JJ Watt, he's your cautionary tale as he missed a whole season with an injury in 1998 before coming back and playing well for a couple of years (so an injury risk like JJ). If you look at the cap, it's roughly triple what it was back in 2002, so an equivalent contract in 2020 would be about 6 years, 100 million and 21 million guaranteed (the contract was for all intents and purposes, 3 years and 16 million guaranteed for Johnson, so he it was for more like 50 million in likely money in today's terms).
Hardy Nickerson was washed up by the time the Packers got him too, but his was not for a large amount of money.
The Packers historically have had one big flameout free agent on defense and have been overall excellent when they go after defensive players in free agency. White and Woodson are two of the top 5-10 FA signings in NFL history.
Offense is a different story. Other than minimum-level contracts (Andre Rison, Bruce Wilkerson), it's hard to remember a free agent addition on offense that really contributed to a winning season in a significant way.
JJ Watt is likely not going to get a blockbuster, Joe Johnson-type contract. That would be a huge risk. Something in the 10 million dollar range is a very worthwhile risk and, even if it gets hurt, does not hamper you for years to come.