The other potential “issue” being Gutekunst wanting to trade the received pick(s) to avoid the pressure of the direct “we traded Aaron Rodgers for you” variety. TT had talked about that when trading the Favre pick. If they received the two #2s, maybe he’d see that differently, but getting #13 and trading with Seattle, or maybe even Detroit, would better “launder” the picks while gaining the two #2s.
@Tschmack posted:It’s tough to say what’s better - the Jets 13th overall pick or their two 2nd rounders.
For me, I’d prefer the 13th overall pick. It would allow GB to either package both 1s to move into the top 10 or allow them to trade back later into R1 and get more picks.
The real question is with either scenario what other draft compensation is on the table? I would still think if you are the Packers you want conditional draft collateral in 2024 if Rodgers plays well in 2023 or if plays in 2024 something is on the table for 2025.
The decision to move up depends on how many truly elite guys there are in this draft outside the 4 QBs - who are all going to probably go in the top 7-8 picks. If there are another 4-5 guys that your scouts think are elite, then you move up and get into the top 10. If you think its the 4 QBs, Will Anderson, and Carter as the elite guys and then about 10-12 similar prospects, you stay where you are and maybe even consider trading down.
If it's only Will Anderson and Carter, then you are much better off staying where you (as it would take too much to get into the top 6-7) are or even trading down for some extra picks for depth.
I like the 42/43 picks plus swapping 15 for 13. Then a conditional 2025 pick - 3 rd that moves to 2nd if Rodgers plays in 2024, and to a 1st if the Jets make the playoffs.
@NumberThree posted:The Jets still have quite a bit of work to do cap-wise to absorb any Rodgers' cap hit if they are trying to lowball draft picks in a trade. As it stands, Rodgers has close to a $16mm cap hit for the Jets in a trade (absent cap absorption/restructuring).
The Jets only have a little over $10mm in cap space right now, but it goes down to about $5mm when you factor in the NFL Draft Rookie Pool resources for 2023.
But the Jets will save about $2m in cap space if they trade us their 2nd round picks, because they will have less rookies to sign. Doesn't make up the difference but the rookie pool doesn't exist in a vacuum.
@PackLandVA posted:Having picks 42, 43, and 45 would also make it pretty easy to move up into the end of Round 1 and/or the beginning of Round 2.
This, it gives us flexibility if someone we like falls. Plus good players exist in the 2nd round. Last 4 drafts got us Jenkins, Dillon, Myers, and Watson in the 2nd. Adding three more guys of that caliber plus still having our 1st pick would make a really nice draft.
I agree with Vitaflo, and I want picks, not players, from the Jets.
@MichiganPacker posted:If it's only Will Anderson and Carter, then you are much better off staying where you (as it would take too much to get into the top 6-7) are or even trading down for some extra picks for depth.
Unless Carter does some Lazarus like brand revival, he's not going in the top 10. First the legal issues. Then he showed up overweight and out of shape at UG's pro day, couldn't even finish the drills.
@DH13 posted:Unless Carter does some Lazarus like brand revival, he's not going in the top 10. First the legal issues. Then he showed up overweight and out of shape at UG's pro day, couldn't even finish the drills.
Almost every mock I see still has him in the top 10. Raiders and Bears.
Carter is drawing Warren Sapp or even Randy Moss comparisons. He could be arguably the most talented guy in the draft. Some thinking Chicago may take him 9 overall.
Skoronski and Johnson are projected to go somewhere in the 10-15 range which is why I think the Jets are reluctant to deal that choice to GB.
I mean, it’s not a particularly deep draft this year even if Levis and Richardson go in the Top 10. To that extent, GB may be better off getting more or better compensation next year or even in 2025. There aren’t any stud WRs (like last year in R1), and other than Carter and Anderson I’m not sure there’s a really good DL to be had outside the top 10. Ironically, Skoronski or Johnson may be GBs best choice at 15 or 13 - if the Jets are willing to give it up.
Getting the Jets two 2s and let’s say another 2 or even maybe a 1 in 2024 or 2025 would be worth a lot more IMO than the 13th overall pick this year and some other conditional pick like a 4 or 3.
Their own 13th pick means more to the Jets if they are targeting one of those two OTs because there’s a good chance one or both of them will be there.
BTW, Carter to Vegas at 7 would be such a Raiders move.
Packers have had some success drafting players in R2, so acquiring the Jets 2 2nds may not be the worst thing in the world.
Guys with a torpedoed reputation leading up to the draft but were extremely talented.
@Herschel posted:Guys with a torpedoed reputation leading up to the draft but were extremely talented.
Moss was supremely talanted and a great WR, but he retained some of the jerk almost to the very end of his playing career. Funny thing is, his daughter went to the same school as a friend of mine's kid at a small school and they said he would show up to parent meetings, stand in the back, and say very little. They said he almost seemed shy and didn't want the attention.
@PackLandVA posted:Having picks 42, 43, and 45 would also make it pretty easy to move up into the end of Round 1 and/or the beginning of Round 2.
Scouts: we've got 3 guys targeted for our RD2 pick. They're all dead even in every regard. Which one should we pick?
Gute: i don't know. take all of them.
@ammo posted:The Jets want to upgrade their OL. They stand a better chance of getting 1 or even 2 OL with picks 42 & 43 than they do with pick #13.
The Packers want an impact WR, TE or rush DE. They stand a better chance of getting that player at #13 then they do at #42 & 43.
If the value is the same the Jets would be stupid to hang onto #13 and not get Rodgers. Why can't they see that? Hold the line Gutey and get that #13. And keep the # 15 too.
I had planned to post this scenario once I read through the thread. Damn you for beating me to the punch.
@Herschel posted:The other potential “issue” being Gutekunst wanting to trade the received pick(s) to avoid the pressure of the direct “we traded Aaron Rodgers for you” variety. TT had talked about that when trading the Favre pick. If they received the two #2s, maybe he’d see that differently, but getting #13 and trading with Seattle, or maybe even Detroit, would better “launder” the picks while gaining the two #2s.
No offense but that makes no sense to me. >>Maybe<< if they drafted a QB, but even so, Love is the unquestioned starter this year. Why would a DL, OT, or any other position player worry about being drafted with a pick that came from trading AR12?
@FinnLander posted:No offense but that makes no sense to me. >>Maybe<< if they drafted a QB, but even so, Love is the unquestioned starter this year. Why would a DL, OT, or any other position player worry about being drafted with a pick that came from trading AR12?
Like it or not, it's a thing. Fans, media, etc. are going to point out, even to the player, their perceived value compared to the guy traded for that pick, and when Aaron Rodgers is the one traded for that pick, if that player isn't instantly making plays, it's usually a PR disaster.
You may think it makes no sense, I'd agree it shouldn't, but that's not reality. Look at how many have turned on Rodgers just on this board. Imagine goober central making that player's life miserable, especially in a place as small as Green Bay.
If the player plays a different position the pressure and expectations might not be so great. The Packers traded the 2nd rounder they got for Adams but #1 was Quay Walker. It's hard to expect a LB to have the impact that a WR has. So I never heard anything about it last season. If the compensation for Rodgers is second round draft choices I doubt much will be made of it. If the compensation is the #13 pick, which appears unlikely, it would be a different story.
@DH13 posted:Unless Carter does some Lazarus like brand revival, he's not going in the top 10. First the legal issues. Then he showed up overweight and out of shape at UG's pro day, couldn't even finish the drills.
FWIW, Carter no longer has any legal issues.
His (apparently) excellent legal representation negotiated a plea deal that is a typical athlete's slap on the wrist.
Just pay no attention to the fact that people died...
On some level that's gotta mess with Carter's head legal troubles or not. That's a lot of mental baggage to carry while pursuing a football career at the highest level. If you have any kind of humanity an accident like that eats at you in your quiet moments. I think a lot us feel lucky that the dumb shit we did in our youth never led to anything that extreme, but easily could have.
If I worked for a team, I would be more troubled by his pro day performance and overall physical condition. Lots of pros play with baggage, some more than others. But there aren't a lot of pros that last long overweight and out of shape.
This is the guy you have to beat out for the job ^
@PackerRick posted:If the player plays a different position the pressure and expectations might not be so great. The Packers traded the 2nd rounder they got for Adams but #1 was Quay Walker. It's hard to expect a LB to have the impact that a WR has. So I never heard anything about it last season. If the compensation for Rodgers is second round draft choices I doubt much will be made of it. If the compensation is the #13 pick, which appears unlikely, it would be a different story.
Setting aside QB Rodgers =/= WR Adams, there was plenty of anger they traded Adams, greatly weakening the offense and took Walker (and two defenders) for a defense that still wasn't good. Many on this board were just excited thay actually didn't ignore the ILB position for once, but in the wider world there was angt.
My favorite Packers offenses had diversity in the passing game. The offense got better without Sterling Sharp, and hopefully this new QB will spread the ball around. That will improve the offense.
It's not Rodgers' fault the front office let the receiver room turn to shit.
@Herschel posted:It's not Rodgers' fault the front office let the receiver room turn to shit.
I wonder how much Rodgers had influence in that? He wanted Cobb & Lewis each year in GB. Now we hear reports of him asking for Lazard (who the Jets signed), Cobb and Lewis in NY. If the room turned to 💩, why does Rodgers want those guys in NY?
Gutey has always reminded me of Michael Scott...
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) March 23, 2023
🎥 - thealphafly pic.twitter.com/TJv7znutER
@PA green & gold posted:I wonder how much Rodgers had influence in that? He wanted Cobb & Lewis each year in GB. Now we hear reports of him asking for Lazard (who the Jets signed), Cobb and Lewis in NY. If the room turned to 💩, why does Rodgers want those guys in NY?
So you’re trying to blame Rodgers because he wanted at least some basic competence if they weren’t going to restock talent? Wolf admitted he let receiver slip, TT generally kept the receiver room with talent, and Fredokunst drafted a bunch of tall, fast guys who couldn’t catch, then ignored it for another couple years until losing the one good receiver he inherited.
