everything logical says 49ers should win. the game is not about logic sometimes.
@FLPACKER posted:Weather shouldn't be a major factor
Sat 20 | Day
60°SSE12 mphCloudy with periods of light rain. High near 60F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Forecast for night looks similar.
Rain will have huge impact and wind could negate our advantage having Love as QB
@Boris posted:I wish Aaron would've just run the offense instead of acting like he's the smartest guy at the LOS.
But that's boring.....he's bored making the easy throws.
I'm so pissed they wasted 2022....but glad they got what they did for Rodgers in 2023.
Next year he may have two channels in his helmet, one to Nat H and one to Pat M.
@Timmy! posted:4 consecutive wins vs the Packers?
Why, we owe those dirty bastards a beating!
Yeah we really do.....I think MLF is sick of losing to Kyle too..... we'll see....
The 2 losses that really stick with me are at Lambeau losing 23-20 to the incomparable Kaepernick 
when Micah Hyde had an INT and dropped it then of course the bullshit 13-10 game. I was so done with Aaron Rodgers after that game. Allan Lazard wide ass open and doesn't throw him the ball. Fucking ridiculous.
This really is a different team, physically and mentally. Much more so on offense.
I don't know if the results will be different but it's kind of nice to know we aren't going to see the same offense we saw two years ago.
I probably missed it but did Enagbare definitely tear his ACL? If so, I would think surgery would be soon. Not sure of recovery time but maybe not ready for the start of next season?
@DH13 posted:I don't know if the results will be different but it's kind of nice to know we aren't going to see the same offense we saw two years ago.
Receivers significantly better even absent a HOF player.
@Tavis Smiley posted:While the GB offense has been fun as hell to watch of late, I think this game comes down first and foremost to how physical the defense plays. I don't see this Joe Barry defense being able to hit SF in the mouth and control the LOS. Why do I say that? Because I've never seen it happen. I fear SF feasts on this and runs GB off the field, maybe not to the extent they did in 2019, but with the same blueprint and with similar results. Hopefully the GB offense can stay on the field and match SF blow for blow.
Great post. SF can be tough to score on but I truly believe that even they will have a tough time covering all of the weapons GB can put out there. If and this may be a big if they can run the ball then the play action game can work.
But as you said I worry about the defense and its lack of a physicality most of the time. They have to find a way to get aggressive and smack SF in the mouth. Not only that but they need to find a way to not let Kittle run wild over the middle and keeping CMC in check. This is going to be a huge challenge for this defense and I am hoping they find a way to clamp down on them.
The D hasn't been playing "soft" for over a month now. They're not on par wth SF but as long as Barry doesn't curl them back up into a soft zone fetus, they'll challenge. Tackling was very good vs. DAL and they'll need an even better game vs. SF. Having Jaire and McDuffie, all hands on deck, is also crucial.
Jaire Alexander not practicing again today. AJ Dillon returned to stretch with a helmet, but not sure if he’s practicing since we only watch stretch. He’s missed the last two games with a neck injury.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) January 18, 2024
Heard an interesting stat today. 49ers are 8-0 when they have zero turnovers. Gotta find a way to get at least one.
Niners are 8-0 when they have Z-E-R-O turnovers.
The Niners are 4-5 when they have at least 1 turnover and like 3-5 when they have 2 or more turnovers.
They gotta stop the run....They Gotta get to Purdy and make him uncomfortable. Speed up his clock. Maybe get a few tipped balls and INT's. Purdy is a good QB and runs the system well but the dude is a shrimp. Get in his face and put pressure on him. Watch what happens. I've seen it with Cleveland, Minnesota, Cincinnati and Baltimore. The Packers can play defense just as good as any of those teams. We've seen it!
Losing Enagbare sucks because he was such a solid rotational player and usually got pressure on the QB!
The Packers....they absolutely cannot make mistakes....Aaron Jones can't fumble. Love cannot throw INT's. No tipped balls. The defense....sticky coverage and sure tackles. The receivers....keep running those amazing routes! The Niners DBs can be had but the O-Line needs to block their asses off. Nick Bosa and Chase Young are really good...one thing I know is if Kraft and Tom block Bosa..... he'll be neutralized. Chip on Bosa, go out for a pass and oh BTW ....Luke Musgrave is on the other side....
Musgrave is my pick to click in this game. Packers have had 3 different receivers over 100 yards....Musgrave is my guy on Saturday Night. I think he could really cause problems for the Niners.
P. Bukowski picks 31-27 Niners
He's in first place so he's picked well all year but he picked the Cowboys last week too....soooo......🤷♂️
These 3 picks seem the most well grounded.
We'll see which Packer team shows up. The one that played the Giants or the one that played the Cowboys??
I believe it will be somewhere in between honestly. I'm just so grateful these young bucks in Green Bay are going to get this experience so soon. It's amazing. What a year it's been!!
Other than 1996 and 2010, this has been an incredible season. Whatta roller coaster....of Love....Roller coaster.....woo hoo hoo hoooo hoooo!
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again, I think about all the stats in hell that Dallas had...doesn't matter, sometimes logic is defied.
@TomSilverstein: #Packers coach Matt LaFleur said that CB Jaire Alexander, RB AJ Dillon, ILB Isaiah McDuffie and P Daniel Whelan are questionable. LaFleur said Whelan is sick and should be OK. It will be wait and see on Alexander Saturday.
I've heard multiple Niner fans claim that Purdy struggles with a wet ball. They did not want to see a rainy game. Perhaps the weather will work in our favor.
This may be overly simplistic, but I think it comes down to Purdy versus Love. The defense needs to pressure Purdy into making mistakes, while Love needs to play the game of his life. There is a narrow pathway for victory and everything needs to go just right, but the win is out there!
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@Dr._Bob posted:This may be overly simplistic, but I think it comes down to Purdy versus Love. The defense needs to pressure Purdy into making mistakes, while Love needs to play the game of his life. There is a narrow pathway for victory and everything needs to go just right, but the win is out there!
If it turns into Purdy vs. Love, I like the Packers chances. But for that to happen, the Packers have to be able to consistently run the ball. Aaron Jones is good and healthy, but I'm not sure they can run the ball well enough to keep the Niners pass rushers from teeing off, especially if the Packers fall behind by a couple of scores.
Alexa just told me Alexander will be available for the game. Can anyone confirm?
Did Alexas voice sound like YA’s by chance?
I don't know but it did sound like there were a bunch of unruly students in the background.
Considering how well 33 and the OL have been running the ball, vs better run D's than SF (SF actually worse run D than GB), I have more faith in pulling that off than in our D stopping their running game. IF SF can establish the run, it will protect Purdy from wet balls and from our pass rush. SF uses a broad arsenal of runners to keep the ball on the ground: CMC, Juszczyk, Mitchell, Deebo and even Purdy can run if he has to to keep a drive alive. But MCM is the workhorse game breaker they need to worry about.
Gotta swarm to the ball and wrap up.
The 49ers are 8-0 when they don't turn the ball over this season and 4-5 when they turn it over at least once.
The 49ers are 9-1 when they create at least two takeaways and 3-4 when they get one or fewer.
The 49ers are 10-0 when Brock Purdy does not throw an interception and 2-5 when he throws one or more, including an 0-3 mark when he throws two or more interceptions.
-- The 49ers led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season with 22. They have five players with multiple interceptions and 10 players with at least one interception.
-- Under pressure, Purdy has 11 turnover worthy plays (11th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 5.4 (18th). Love has nine turnover worthy plays (9th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.2 (10th), so he's (Love) actually been a little better at protecting the ball under duress this season.
-- The 49ers get their hands on a lot of footballs. They batted 11 passes, defensed 42 passes and forced incompletions on 54 attempts. Charvarius Ward led the NFL with 23 passes defensed in 2023, and his five interceptions ranked tied for fourth.
Thanks Zach Kruse of Packer Wire for that research.
@DH13 posted:Considering how well 33 and the OL have been running the ball, vs better run D's than SF (SF actually worse run D than GB), I have more faith in pulling that off than in our D stopping their running game. IF SF can establish the run, it will protect Purdy from wet balls and from our pass rush. SF uses a broad arsenal of runners to keep the ball on the ground: CMC, Juszczyk, Mitchell, Deebo and even Purdy can run if he has to to keep a drive alive. But MCM is the workhorse game breaker they need to worry about.
Gotta swarm to the ball and wrap up.
The Niners are the number one seed and have been steamrolling recent opponents. They are loaded with elite talent at the skill positions, including running back Christian McCaffery, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. They excel at stopping the run and play a physical brand of football that can intimidate and overwhelm opponents who don’t match their intensity level.
What if I told you the #49ers had a worse run defense than the #Packers?
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) January 17, 2024
GB 22nd in EPA/rush
SF 26th in EPA/rush
The #Packers played 3 teams in the top 10 in defensive DVOA
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) January 17, 2024
5th Dallas -- 41 points
6th PIT -- 19 points (But 399 yards)
7th KC -- 27 points
49ers are 4th in DVOA. Green Bay moved the ball with relative ease on all of them.
This offense works....Kyle knows. I'd expect Kyle to be helping his defense how to defend his offense.
Nick Bosa called it.....This ain't Aaron Rodgers offense any more.
YOU'RE GOD DAMN RIGHT NICK!
It's fucking better
@pkr_north posted:everything logical says 49ers should win. the game is not about logic sometimes.
Well, they [49ers] are a very good team, but not some powerhouse.
@MichiganPacker posted:If it turns into Purdy vs. Love, I like the Packers chances.
Lets be honest, this game is going to be all about CMC vs our run D.
Let’s not forget the Niners are beatable. They like the Eagles looked great to start and then had a losing streak to the Browns, Queens and Bengals. They righted the ship unlike the Eagles. I don’t remember their losses but guessing Packer coaches have studied those games.
@YATittle posted:Rain will have huge impact and wind could negate our advantage having Love as QB
Rong rong rong rong rong. Creampuff passing Purdy will have the disadvantage passing. Love can drive the ball in the wind and rain. The disadvantage may be catching it but last time it looked like the Packers would be playing in the rain MLF had the WR catching water soaked balls at practice.
Ammo, I hope you're right. Just thinking the wind PLUS the rain may keep everything on the ground. Hoping Reed gets some carries this week.
So, if we win the coin flip do we take the ball again to start?
I sure as hell hope so. Don't screw up a winning formula.
@Boris posted:The 49ers are 8-0 when they don't turn the ball over this season and 4-5 when they turn it over at least once.
The 49ers are 9-1 when they create at least two takeaways and 3-4 when they get one or fewer.
The 49ers are 10-0 when Brock Purdy does not throw an interception and 2-5 when he throws one or more, including an 0-3 mark when he throws two or more interceptions.
-- The 49ers led the NFL in interceptions during the regular season with 22. They have five players with multiple interceptions and 10 players with at least one interception.
-- Under pressure, Purdy has 11 turnover worthy plays (11th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 5.4 (18th). Love has nine turnover worthy plays (9th most) and a turnover worthy play percentage of 4.2 (10th), so he's (Love) actually been a little better at protecting the ball under duress this season.
-- The 49ers get their hands on a lot of footballs. They batted 11 passes, defensed 42 passes and forced incompletions on 54 attempts. Charvarius Ward led the NFL with 23 passes defensed in 2023, and his five interceptions ranked tied for fourth.
Thanks Zach Kruse of Packer Wire for that research.
You're ON FIRE this week!
@Boris posted:This offense works....Kyle knows. I'd expect Kyle to be helping his defense how to defend his offense.
Nick Bosa called it.....This ain't Aaron Rodgers offense any more.
YOU'RE GOD DAMN RIGHT NICK!
It's fucking better
Another case in point! You're taking this game personal aren't you??