Yeah, he will be a first rounder for sure with that 40 time.
Is Fant good enough to take at 12? No way he makes it to 30.
I think I still want an edge rusher.
I see Gutey trading down a little & acquiring another 2nd / 3rd rounder & drafting a guy like Fant. I like Hock a little better I think but Fant just shot up the draft boards, no doubt
I’m leaning towards OT or Edge at 12, depending who is there, and if Fant is gone, RB at 30.
The new guy wants to run the ball. Can’t do that without some quality running backs.
And no, one is not enough in today’s NFL (broken record repeat).
Find out who the Patriots want at #32 & make them trade up to #30 to get him.
Boris posted:I see Gutey trading down a little & acquiring another 2nd / 3rd rounder & drafting a guy like Fant.
I thought you wanted BPA, not a trade down.
DK Metcalf is a top 10 pick now, right?
Probably. That was an insane time for a guy his size.
| D.K. Metcalf | Ole Miss | 6-3 3/8 | 228 | 34 7/8 | 9 7/8 | 82 7/8 |
4.33
| Noah Fant | Iowa | 6-4 1/8 | 249 | 33 1/2 | 9 3/4 | 80 |
4.51
Metcalf has a chip on his shoulder, sees himself as the best receiver available in the draft, gonna prove it.
AR, being used to speedsters like DickRod and Jimmie G will under throw him for half the season.
For as good as Jones has been rushing, he's on the edge of being injury-prone.
RB depth is therefore vital, but I wouldn't pick one in the first round, and likely not even in the 2nd.
I'm not considering variables like value or trades that can pop up unexpectedly during the draft. My thinking is our needs at other positions far outweigh taking a chance on a RB that high in the draft. If I'm taking that chance, it would be at LB, S, or OL.
That kind of work by Metcalf could push another edge rusher down to 12
I want another running back. Don't even care if it is a little guy who is slick as shit or a hammer between the tackles. Jones will get hurt, Williams is pretty average, another guy is needed.
I'd still be shocked if they don't take an edge rusher at #12. You can have a great offense with an average TE. You can't have a great defense without a great edge rusher.
Fedya posted:Boris posted:I see Gutey trading down a little & acquiring another 2nd / 3rd rounder & drafting a guy like Fant.
I thought you wanted BPA, not a trade down.
Sometimes your best value is a trade down. Like last year in the first round.
I think Metcalf just vaulted himself into the top 10. Lions maybe at #8?
Hoping 2 QB's go in top 10 as well (Murray & Haskins)
CUPackFan posted:I'd still be shocked if they don't take an edge rusher at #12. You can have a great offense with an average TE. You can't have a great defense without a great edge rusher.
Yes you can....look at Pettine's defenses with the Jets. Top 10 defenses and only once did he have a guy get over 8 sacks in a season. What he did have was Reavis on one side / Cromartie on the other. Taking away the QB's first look has the highest correlation to sacks rather than cleanly beating your man on the pass rush. CB is the most important position next to QB in the NFL.
Boris posted:Fedya posted:Boris posted:I see Gutey trading down a little & acquiring another 2nd / 3rd rounder & drafting a guy like Fant.
I thought you wanted BPA, not a trade down.
Sometimes your best value is a trade down. Like last year in the first round.
I think Metcalf just vaulted himself into the top 10. Lions maybe at #8?
Hoping 2 QB's go in top 10 as well (Murray & Haskins)
He has Raiders written all over him.
FLPACKER posted:CUPackFan posted:I'd still be shocked if they don't take an edge rusher at #12. You can have a great offense with an average TE. You can't have a great defense without a great edge rusher.
Yes you can....look at Pettine's defenses with the Jets. Top 10 defenses and only once did he have a guy get over 8 sacks in a season. What he did have was Reavis on one side / Cromartie on the other. Taking away the QB's first look has the highest correlation to sacks rather than cleanly beating your man on the pass rush. CB is the most important position next to QB in the NFL.
He had good defenses with a pair of amazing corners, one an all-time great in his prime.
There's no Revis Prime in Green Bay. There is no Revis Prime in the league right now.
Great pass rushers make corners' jobs easier.
Obviously you'd love to have both but in today's game CB is the most valuable defensive position. The league is all about matchups & when you get a better #1 or #2 CB not only does it make that position better, it makes the #3 & #4 CB positions better also. I've tried to pay more attention to this in the last couple of years and really notice that many games turn momentum when a 1 or 2 CB go out of the game with injury. In addition, I went back to our last playoff loss at Atlanta. Ryan got the ball out of his hands on almost every pass in under 3 seconds. A number of times we had a rusher beat his man cleanly but Ryan was able to easily go to his first read. It didn't matter if our guy wasn't even blocked, he couldn't get there. I would not mind Murphy, CB from Washington with #12.
Pakrz posted:Paging Mr. Bell.
I could live with that
Pakrz posted:Is Fant good enough to take at 12? No way he makes it to 30.
I think I still want an edge rusher.
If Fant doesn't make it to #30, that means there will be some Edge Rushers, O- Linemen and Safeties available at that pick. In 4 mocks I've done I was able to get TJ Hockenson at #30 and Fant went after Hockenson. Its a good draft for TEs. We should be able to draft one or maybe two of them if that is Gute's plan.
CUPackFan posted:I'd still be shocked if they don't take an edge rusher at #12. You can have a great offense with an average TE. You can't have a great defense without a great edge rusher.
Nagler was saying that Pettine was able to get a pass rush from his IDL and Fackrell getting his 10+ sacks was a nice surprise. He was saying it is not a necessity to draft an Edge rusher with #12. Still, that is where the big boys are and by #30, most of the impact edge rushers are gone. Impact Safeties are usually gone around round 3. It all depends on what you value and see as a need.
Surprising to hear a player describe his interview this way. Usually they’re more diplomatic about the things, even if they dont go as expected.
Attachments
mrtundra posted:Pakrz posted:Is Fant good enough to take at 12? No way he makes it to 30.
I think I still want an edge rusher.
If Fant doesn't make it to #30, that means there will be some Edge Rushers, O- Linemen and Safeties available at that pick. In 4 mocks I've done I was able to get TJ Hockenson at #30 and Fant went after Hockenson. Its a good draft for TEs. We should be able to draft one or maybe two of them if that is Gute's plan.
Well I certainly didn't take your internet mock drafts into account.
FLPACKER posted:Obviously you'd love to have both but in today's game CB is the most valuable defensive position. The league is all about matchups & when you get a better #1 or #2 CB not only does it make that position better, it makes the #3 & #4 CB positions better also. I've tried to pay more attention to this in the last couple of years and really notice that many games turn momentum when a 1 or 2 CB go out of the game with injury. In addition, I went back to our last playoff loss at Atlanta. Ryan got the ball out of his hands on almost every pass in under 3 seconds. A number of times we had a rusher beat his man cleanly but Ryan was able to easily go to his first read. It didn't matter if our guy wasn't even blocked, he couldn't get there. I would not mind Murphy, CB from Washington with #12.
Conversely, you need three legitimate pass rushers to have a successful pass rush. An elite guy forces the scheme, which makes your #2 and #3 pass rushers that much better.
That said, I'm also for bringing in cover guys early as well. My favorite safeties, Adderly, Gardner-Johnson and Thornhill, also played corner and in the slot in college. When King is healthy they have maybe three viable defensive backs. However, the strength of this draft is up front, so match value with need.
Boris posted:Fedya posted:Boris posted:I see Gutey trading down a little & acquiring another 2nd / 3rd rounder & drafting a guy like Fant.
I thought you wanted BPA, not a trade down.
Sometimes your best value is a trade down. Like last year in the first round.
I think Metcalf just vaulted himself into the top 10. Lions maybe at #8?
Hoping 2 QB's go in top 10 as well (Murray & Haskins)
Lions are desperate for WR talent so I could sure see that.
From #1 overall to Mr. Irrelevant, the entire draft is a crapshoot. The chances of finding great players increase dramatically the closer you pick to #1. Trading back, thereby decreasing your odds of luckily finding a gem, is exactly what the Packers don't need.
Stay at 12 and draft an Edge guy. At 30, snag that TE, OL, WR or S that we didn't get in FA.... and then hope to hell you can find the pot of gold in rounds 2 through 7.
Boris posted:Find out who the Patriots want at #32 & make them trade up to #30 to get him.
And then trade 32 to someone for a 2nd and a 3 or 4.
mrtundra posted:Pakrz posted:Is Fant good enough to take at 12? No way he makes it to 30.
I think I still want an edge rusher.
If Fant doesn't make it to #30, that means there will be some Edge Rushers, O- Linemen and Safeties available at that pick. In 4 mocks I've done I was able to get TJ Hockenson at #30 and Fant went after Hockenson. Its a good draft for TEs. We should be able to draft one or maybe two of them if that is Gute's plan.
The problem with internet mocks is they're not only dependent on "your" choices, they're also dependent on the strength of the board and the algorithm. Add in the combine is probably more important for non-team evaluation as teams have a team of people scouting, putting together tape and the ability to view back-to-back or even side-by-side (as well as also having the background investigations).
Let's take Defensive Tackles. Everyone with eyes and an interest has likely seen multiple Alabama games and can tell you Quinnen Williams is a freakish stud. To a lesser extent, same thing with Christian Wilkins from Clemson.
Now take Jerry Tillery from Notre Dame. I could tell you he's pretty good, but I'm not breaking down tape side-by-side for hours. To my eyes, he's a second-rounder, maybe early third as he's not as explosive as Williams in what little I've seen of him. His combine drills side-by-side show that I was underestimating his get off skills and agility. He's still lighter than Williams but he should probably go in the first round. The team scouts likely already had him there unless they have character concerns.
Same with Fant. I'd guess 90% (99.9% who have seen an Iowa game) of us already knew he was pretty explosive, but what's out point of reference? Compared to Hockenson, who is also very good, he's faster, sure, but now we have a better picture of what the team scouts have put together by their tape teams.
To add, let's take in to a mock where we can "play the board":
Round 1 Pick 12: Allen, Josh, OLB, Kentucky (A+)
Round 1 Pick 30: Sweat, Montez, DE, Mississippi State (A)
Round 2 Pick 18 (MINN): Smith Jr, Irv, TE, Alabama (A+)
Round 3 Pick 17 (MINN): Gardner-Johnson, Chauncey, FS, Florida (A+)
Round 3 Pick 24 (DET): Oliver, Josh, TE, San Jose State (A)
Round 4 Pick 9 (DET): McGary, Kaleb, OT, Washington (A+)
Round 4 Pick 10 (BUF): Samuel, Deebo, WR, South Carolina (A+)
Round 4 Pick 12: Deiter, Michael, OG, Wisconsin (A+)
Round 4 Pick 19 (TENN): Jordan, Michael, OG/C, Ohio State (A+)
Round 5 Pick 12: Stidham, Jarrett, QB, Auburn (A+)
Round 6 Pick 5 (JAX): Gant, Malik, FS/SS, Marshall (A+)
Round 6 Pick 17 (MINN): Anderson, Rodney, RB, Oklahoma (A+)
Round 6 Pick 21: Johnson, Isaiah, CB, Houston (A+)
Round 6 Pick 36 (MINN): Givens, Kevin, DT, Penn State (A+)
Round 7 Pick 12: Dortch, Greg, WR, Wake Forest (A+)
Allen falls to 12, sweet. Not bloody likely, but you could say weirder things have happened and dreaming is free.
Sweat at 30? There was a WR run in the first so he was there. Again, not bloody likely at 30.
2/12? The algorithm had Minnesota jonesing for Jaylon Ferguson and offered 2/18 and 3/17 with all the TEs still on the board. There was a more realistic trade offer but I want the best value and to fleece the Vikings, damnit! Heck, I'll even get to do it again later!
2/18 is Irv Smith. He might be there for their second-round pick. (board has Hockenson as basically a third-rounder so I might be able to get both in this mock!)
3/12: Detroit is drooling and hey, I can fleece the Lions a bit!
3/17 is Gardner-Johnson after just missing Adderly by a pick. Neither should still be on the board. Josh Oliver, Michael Deiter and Deebo Samuel and probably Kaleb McGary should all be gone by this pick. Heck, they could all be gone in round 2.
Basically, in my guesstimation only Smith and maybe Stidham have any chance on actually being available where I got them.
Timmy! posted:For as good as Jones has been rushing, he's on the edge of being injury-prone.
RB depth is therefore vital, but I wouldn't pick one in the first round, and likely not even in the 2nd.
I'm not considering variables like value or trades that can pop up unexpectedly during the draft. My thinking is our needs at other positions far outweigh taking a chance on a RB that high in the draft. If I'm taking that chance, it would be at LB, S, or OL.
I hear this, it just seems like with running backs, it is a lot harder to find good ones later in the draft. It's a visible position; everyone knows who the good ones are. It also seems like there's a steep drop-off from the elite guys to the average ones, and the majority of the teams that made deep playoff runs last year had elite RB's
Safety, LB, TE, RB, OL, they are all serious needs. Depending how it plays out, I don't think round one is too high for an elite RB. If the Alabama guy wows them at his pro day, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Gute says "screw it, let's get the best guy" and takes him at #12.
If he impresses them and he's there at 30, then it's a no-brainer. The TE class is deep this year I hear.
the way sweat just ran 
he probably may be the guy...man he looked like a freak of nature running - long long arms / fast / tall...and he can play...
Yeah, Sweat running a 4.41 (now official) is insane! At 260#-plus he not only blasted past Bruce Irvin and Von Miller's times a few years back, he was a touch faster than Odell Beckham Jr.!
He sheds blockers too. A lot of highlight reels have guys making plays untouched. Not his.
Grave Digger posted:Surprising to hear a player describe his interview this way. Usually they’re more diplomatic about the things, even if they dont go as expected.
Yeah sounds like they had a character question. I asked my nephew who played with him in high school and knows him, and he said he's "a great guy."
Come to think of it, my nephew smokes a lot of marijuana. I might have to ask him again LOL.
A guy I really like in the mid rounds, Jalen Jelks, ran an awfully poor 40 (4.93 unofficial), but looks good in the lateral agility and change-of-direction drills.
Watching the bag drills, it's pretty stark how good Clellin Ferrell's hands are compared to the other guys'. Winovich was probably the only guy close, though they both went with an inside rip rather than a swim also.
Herschel posted:Yeah, Sweat running a 4.41 (now official) is insane! At 260#-plus he not only blasted past Bruce Irvin and Von Miller's times a few years back, he was a touch faster than Odell Beckham Jr.!
I was keeping it a secret but he was the guy I wanted at #12.
Looks like that won't happen now.
The numbers that some of these guys are putting up are unbelievable.
I recall when Jevon Kearse ran like a 4.6-40 and people went crazy. Kearse went about 250 lbs if I recall as an edge rusher.
We’ve now got several prospects on both sides of the ball running in the 4.5-4.6 range and it’s not some kind of anomaly. Sweat ran a low 4.4-40 JFC.
This certainly looks like a very good year if you are in the market for a DL or OLB. Then you have a few TE prospects (namely Fant) that just jump out at you with their speed and size and athleticism.
I know the Packers need OL but if they stay at 12 they should be able to draft an impact player.
Jachai came in with a ton of added bad weight, looked sloppy, wasn’t explosive (1.71 10-yard), forgot to fake a hamstring injury before announcing he had one, and bailed on rest of Combine. Not great.
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) March 3, 2019